MY BASEBALL BIAS

While we wait for the Mets and Santana to dot the i’s and cross the t’s of a contract extension, I thought we’d take a look at what people are saying about the trade and what the future holds for the Yankees after abstaining from obtaining the Cy Young lefty.

I find it interesting that Jim Callis of Baseball America, the one guy who actually follows the minor leagues, is not getting more press this morning in the papers and the blogosphere. Here is what he had to say about the package of players the Twins are getting:

Minnesota might be better off if those talks collapse, giving new Twins GM Bill Smith a chance to find a better return for Santana. While he’s going to command possibly the richest contract ever given to a pitcher, Santana is the best pitcher in the game. And Smith didn’t get enough for him.

Guerra (No. 2), Gomez (No. 3), Mulvey (No. 4) and Humber (No. 7) all ranked prominently on our Mets Top 10 Prospects list. But there’s simply too much risk involved in this deal for Minnesota.

The two best prospects in the trade, Guerra and Gomez, come with high ceilings but also lack a lot of polish and have a long ways to go to reach their potential. The odds that they both will do so are slim.

Guerra has an 89-94 mph fastball and a promising changeup and he’s only 18. But he also has a below-average breaking ball, has yet to pitch more than 90 innings in a season and while he has held his own, he hasn’t dominated. Gomez had the best package of tools in the Mets system, but his bat is still extemely raw as evidenced by his career .273/.331/.384 averages in the minors.

Mulvey has an arsenal of four average pitches and throws strikes. He’s not overpowering and he’s most likely a No. 4 starter. Since having Tommy John surgery in 2005, Humber hasn’t fully regained the stuff that made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft. His curveball is his best pitch but his fastball now sits at 87-91 mph. He too projects as a No. 4 starter.

So let’s see here, according to Callis the Twins received two guys with “high ceilings” who lack polish and two guys who don’t project out to be more that “No. 4 starters”? When I read Callis’s post yesterday I felt like calling Omar Minaya myself and congratulating him for finding a sucker to take those players. Guerra and Gomez seem like they have a better chance of success than Humber and Mulvey, but still, Bill Smith did a bad job here in my opinion.

Aaron Gleeman give us a glimpse from the perspective of someone who follows the Twins closely:

…getting Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber from the Mets likely beats keeping Santana for one more season and taking a pair of draft picks when he departs as a free agent. A toolsy center fielder who hasn’t shown much offensively, a very raw 18-year-old pitcher, and a pair of MLB-ready middle-of-the-rotation starters is no one’s idea of a great haul for Santana, but it’s not a horrible one and Smith may have backed himself into a corner by not jumping on better offers immediately.

The end result of a bad situation handled poorly is a mediocre package of players that has no one excited, but even acquiring Hughes or Ellsbury wouldn’t have made losing Santana easy to live with. Trading away one of the best players in franchise history while he’s still at the top of his game is a horrible thing and doing so without getting the best possible return for him is extremely disappointing, but the Santana trade still has a chance to work out in the Twins’ favor. It just could have been better.

If the reports are accurate, that the Yankees really did have a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect on the table and the Red Sox had two packages, one centered around Jacoby Ellsbury and one around Jon Lester, then yes, the Twins really could have done better. Hughes, one of the top three pitching prospects in all of baseball, was dangled out there before the Winter Meetings, ripe for the taking. All Smith had to do was check with the Red Sox and see if they wanted to up there offer. But he overplayed his hand. Yes that’s right, I said it, he overplayed his hand. You can say he was patient or just fielding all the offers, but the fact is he held on to Santana too long and interest from the Red Sox and Yankees waned.

The Yankees, well, more like Hank Steinbrenner, was quite desperate to make a splash for Santana. I believe he would have pulled the trigger on a deal back before the meetings began because he wanted a big name. Having to wait like he did gave GM Brian Cashman and his brother the Hal the chance to talk him out of it from two different fronts - don’t trade the young talent we’ve developed (Cashman’s argument) and let us have some financial restraint (Hal’s argument). In the end, Hank held on and I think he Yankees will be better for it. Certainly if the Mets are winning Championships across town and if the Yankees are playing second fiddle to the Red Sox and if the prospects don’t live up to expectations, then sure, maybe you should have made a deal. But isn’t that a lot of if’s?

Sanatana, when it comes down to it, is one player who is commanding a huge price. Is he worth it? I believe yes, but some will disagree. Could the Yankees have afforded him? Of course. In fact, they could have probably afforded five Santanas. At some point, however, you have to realize that other teams are winning without the high-priced talent that the Yankees have come to covet over the last eight years.

I’m certainly no expert on the Yankees farm system, but even I can see that the talent, especially in the pitching corps, is overflowing at the moment. There are guys like Ohlendorff, Horne, Bettances, McCutchen, Brackman, Sanchez, Marquez, Kontos, Whelan, Cox, Robertson, McAllister and Jackson that if you don’t know already, you better get a subscription to PinstripesPlus.com, Baseball America or Pending Pinstripes and start learning about them. Go to Chad Jenning’s Triple-A blog or Mark Ashmore’s Trenton Thunder blog and read what they’re saying about the future of your team. Both are indispensable resources. Google their names for God’s sake. The future of the Yankees isn’t players with $150 million dollar price tags, it’s guys that are currently growing in the back yard that cost next to nothing in the Yankees financial universe.

To put it bluntly, the Yankees won the Santana sweepstakes by not spending and not giving for which future rewards will be reaped upon them. It’s quite biblical.

Ken Rosenthal is reporting this afternoon that the Yankees are close to a four-year deal with Robinson Cano worth $30 million that would buy out all of his arbitration years.

I wonder if this Yankee organization is beginning to “get it”. If they end up deciding not to swing a deal for Santana, look at the decisions the Yankees have made this off-season that are highly unusual for a club that has always gone after older, big-ticket items and tended to not think very much of their young talent.

• 1. Have so far been reluctant to trade prospects Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for Johan Santana, going against what they have always done - give away the young talent for proven veterans that will end up costing them a boat load of money.

• 2. Have shown concern over signing Santana to contract that could reach close to $140M further adding to an already bloating payroll.

• 3. Have not been as active in the free-agent reliever market (with the exception of LaTroy Hawkins) deciding instead to pick from internal candidates.

• 4. Have finally, after years of refusing to do so, locked up one of their young star players by buying out the rest of his (Cano) arbitration years.

I wonder if there is a deal in the works for Wang as well. And why why not? He pitches deep into games and has shown himself to be durable enough to throw over 400 innings the last two years on top of winning 38 games. Add that to the above list and I would say the front office has completely changed their philosophy in one short off-season.

Amazing.

Hat tip to Joseph P. at River Ave. Blues for the Rosenthal link.

Phil Hughes answered a few questions at his blog and offered this on his relationship with new Yankee pitching coach Dave Eiland:

bxbomber44 asked: Are you and all the young guns excited to have Eiland back as your pitching coach this year, nothing against Gator

Phil: This will be my 3rd season working with Dave. When it comes to my mechanics and pitching mentality I don’t think there is anyone that knows me better. Everyone is very excited to have him this season.

I think Eiland will play a huge role in the development of Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain in ‘08. I just hope Girardi listens to what he has to say.

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus pinch-hit today over at LoHud. He looks at the “Verducci Rule” and how it pertains to the Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy. Not sure I learned much by reading it other than the organization needs to be careful (which we are already aware), but it was a good read nonetheless.

David Pinto of Baseball Musings is looking at team offenses in MLB and starts with the Yankees today. It’s a great starting point for predicting how many runs they might score this year.

Pinto adds this:

Even though Wilson(Betemit) and Shelly(Duncan) are not Giambi in terms of OBA and power, they still project to hit well. That gives the Yankees two players off the bench capable of getting on base at better than a league average clip. That’s flexibility Joe Girardi should appreciate. Quite simply put, what every combination the Yankees settle on will be among the league leaders in runs scored.

It will be interesting to see how Girardi handles the first-base platoon.

A few things to check out:

• Alex Rodriguez has been named as the sixth recipient of Thurman Munson award. Says Alex, “It is a privilege and honor to receive the Munson Award, Knowing of Thurman’s legacy in the storied history of the Yankees franchise, and how much the dinner has done to assist children through AHRC NYC Foundation, it is a special honor that I will always cherish.” The dinner is slated for Feb. 5th and as of know, A-Rod is slated to attend.

• Phil Hughes added another post at his blog today with his football picks for the weekend. Click on the link, check it out and send Phil a comment.

• The Yankees Double-A and Triple-A clubs are set to face off against each other on April 1st. Farm director Mark Newman adds - “This game will give the Thunder fans a great chance to honor so many of the players that made the 2007 season so memorable. The 2007 Thunder was a special group of very talented men.” For more information, click here

• A few things via PeteAbe - George Steinbrenner and his sons were all absent from the MLB Owner meetings. President Randy Levine and COO Loon Trost sat in. Not sure why all of the Steinbrenner’s decided to skip the event. Also, if you’re hoping to land a ticket for the 2008 All-Star Game at Yankees Stadium, good luck. Pete explains the hurdles here.

That’s it for now.

Saw this linked by Pinto at Baseball Musings and PeteAbe at Lohud.

Phil Hughes, the Yankee phenom, now has a blog in addition to his official website. I must say the blog needs a little help brother so don’t be afraid to call if you need some pointers with the code. His official site, however, is packed with some nice things including a forum.

Welcome to club Phil. I just might pick me up some of the those jackets you displayed from LRG.

Maybe if I’m lucky, he’ll add MBB to his blogroll.

Again, here are the his sites:

Official: http://philiphughes.net/index.html

Blog: http://philhughes.wordpress.com/

Phil Hughes doesn’t seem too bothered by the Santana rumors:

“I try to avoid the rumors best I can, but you eventually here it from friends, family and the whole deal,” Hughes said after working out Friday at the Yankees’ minor league complex. “You never want to hear your name out there, but on the other side, at least it’s good to know that other teams think highly of you. I wouldn’t say tough winter, but definitely an interesting one.”

“I want to get on a mound before spring training starts, and maybe get four or five bullpens in,” Hughes said. “Physically, everything is good.”

Also mentioned with the AP article are updates on pitchers Humberto Sanchez and Andrew Brackman. Both players are recovering from TJ surgery and are currently participating in a throwing program. Sanchez is looking to return to minor league games in May. Brackman, the 6-10, number #1 draft pick of the Yankees in 2007 will start throwing from 90 feet beginning next week. He won’t be ready for game action until the 2009 season.

Here’s the latest from Jason Stark of ESPN:

With the Yankee’s self-imposed deadline approaching, the Twins and Yankees were getting nowhere Monday night in their attempt to complete a deal for Johan Santana. So the Yankees were again making noises that they might pull out of the Santana talks for good.

“I want to get it done by tonight, one way or another,” Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said, according to The Associated Press. “I’m waiting for a meeting in Nashville, and then Brian will give me a call.”

According to baseball officials who were aware of the talks, the Twins again asked the Yankees on Monday night for pitcher Ian Kennedy — a pitcher the Yankees have insisted for several days that they wouldn’t trade — as the third player in their proposed deal. The Yankees apparently turned down that proposal immediately.

If any deal includes Hughes and Kennedy, Cash has to walk away.

I’ll keep you updated through the night if anything further goes down.

When Hank-Stein said last night that they had the best offer on the table for Santana, even better than the package that Boston put together, you had to know that the fat-boy up North was just licking his chops.

Well, without further ado, I give you Curt Schilling’s rebuttal to Stein’s remarks:

If we make the move we’ll have done so with Theo knowing whatever he had to trade to acquire him he can restock those spots either from within, or via trade. How much is too much when you’re talking about trading for the best left handed pitcher in the game? How much is too much when you consider what he and Josh could do over the next 5-6 years.

Whatever is too much I am more than confident that we won’t get there. Based on the offers I know are out there I can’t see anyone out bidding us talent wise.

Listen, Jon Lester is a quality pitcher, but no one in baseball pegs him as a top of the rotation talent. Jacoby is a nice little player, but with only 40 or so at-bats under his belt, who knows what type of major league outfielder he’ll become.

Phil Hughes, on the other hand, has been talked about by baseball types as a guy that can lead a rotation. A true number one. And Melky Cabrera isn’t some second-rate center fielder and he’s certainly more accomplished in his career than Ellsbury is.

If the Red Sox line-up Crisp, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lester, Lowrie, Masterson, Bowden or Cox, the Yankees can counter with Hughes, Cabrera, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Jackson, Tabata, Miranda, Horne and Marquez.

For Curt to say that “I can’t see anyone out bidding us talent wise” is just preposterous.

What an idiot.

Lots to get to:

• My buddy Ian of Sox and Dawgs just sent me an article from the Minnesota Star Tribune that says the Twins are none to happy that Hank Steinbrenner has gone to the press about a deal for Johan Santana (in case you’re living under a rock, here are Hank-Stein’s comments from last night). An officil in the Twins organization stated simply: “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.” There’s also an issue as to whether Hank-Stein’s comments constituted tampering.