MY BASEBALL BIAS

While we wait for the Mets and Santana to dot the i’s and cross the t’s of a contract extension, I thought we’d take a look at what people are saying about the trade and what the future holds for the Yankees after abstaining from obtaining the Cy Young lefty.

I find it interesting that Jim Callis of Baseball America, the one guy who actually follows the minor leagues, is not getting more press this morning in the papers and the blogosphere. Here is what he had to say about the package of players the Twins are getting:

Minnesota might be better off if those talks collapse, giving new Twins GM Bill Smith a chance to find a better return for Santana. While he’s going to command possibly the richest contract ever given to a pitcher, Santana is the best pitcher in the game. And Smith didn’t get enough for him.

Guerra (No. 2), Gomez (No. 3), Mulvey (No. 4) and Humber (No. 7) all ranked prominently on our Mets Top 10 Prospects list. But there’s simply too much risk involved in this deal for Minnesota.

The two best prospects in the trade, Guerra and Gomez, come with high ceilings but also lack a lot of polish and have a long ways to go to reach their potential. The odds that they both will do so are slim.

Guerra has an 89-94 mph fastball and a promising changeup and he’s only 18. But he also has a below-average breaking ball, has yet to pitch more than 90 innings in a season and while he has held his own, he hasn’t dominated. Gomez had the best package of tools in the Mets system, but his bat is still extemely raw as evidenced by his career .273/.331/.384 averages in the minors.

Mulvey has an arsenal of four average pitches and throws strikes. He’s not overpowering and he’s most likely a No. 4 starter. Since having Tommy John surgery in 2005, Humber hasn’t fully regained the stuff that made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft. His curveball is his best pitch but his fastball now sits at 87-91 mph. He too projects as a No. 4 starter.

So let’s see here, according to Callis the Twins received two guys with “high ceilings” who lack polish and two guys who don’t project out to be more that “No. 4 starters”? When I read Callis’s post yesterday I felt like calling Omar Minaya myself and congratulating him for finding a sucker to take those players. Guerra and Gomez seem like they have a better chance of success than Humber and Mulvey, but still, Bill Smith did a bad job here in my opinion.

Aaron Gleeman give us a glimpse from the perspective of someone who follows the Twins closely:

…getting Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber from the Mets likely beats keeping Santana for one more season and taking a pair of draft picks when he departs as a free agent. A toolsy center fielder who hasn’t shown much offensively, a very raw 18-year-old pitcher, and a pair of MLB-ready middle-of-the-rotation starters is no one’s idea of a great haul for Santana, but it’s not a horrible one and Smith may have backed himself into a corner by not jumping on better offers immediately.

The end result of a bad situation handled poorly is a mediocre package of players that has no one excited, but even acquiring Hughes or Ellsbury wouldn’t have made losing Santana easy to live with. Trading away one of the best players in franchise history while he’s still at the top of his game is a horrible thing and doing so without getting the best possible return for him is extremely disappointing, but the Santana trade still has a chance to work out in the Twins’ favor. It just could have been better.

If the reports are accurate, that the Yankees really did have a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect on the table and the Red Sox had two packages, one centered around Jacoby Ellsbury and one around Jon Lester, then yes, the Twins really could have done better. Hughes, one of the top three pitching prospects in all of baseball, was dangled out there before the Winter Meetings, ripe for the taking. All Smith had to do was check with the Red Sox and see if they wanted to up there offer. But he overplayed his hand. Yes that’s right, I said it, he overplayed his hand. You can say he was patient or just fielding all the offers, but the fact is he held on to Santana too long and interest from the Red Sox and Yankees waned.

The Yankees, well, more like Hank Steinbrenner, was quite desperate to make a splash for Santana. I believe he would have pulled the trigger on a deal back before the meetings began because he wanted a big name. Having to wait like he did gave GM Brian Cashman and his brother the Hal the chance to talk him out of it from two different fronts - don’t trade the young talent we’ve developed (Cashman’s argument) and let us have some financial restraint (Hal’s argument). In the end, Hank held on and I think he Yankees will be better for it. Certainly if the Mets are winning Championships across town and if the Yankees are playing second fiddle to the Red Sox and if the prospects don’t live up to expectations, then sure, maybe you should have made a deal. But isn’t that a lot of if’s?

Sanatana, when it comes down to it, is one player who is commanding a huge price. Is he worth it? I believe yes, but some will disagree. Could the Yankees have afforded him? Of course. In fact, they could have probably afforded five Santanas. At some point, however, you have to realize that other teams are winning without the high-priced talent that the Yankees have come to covet over the last eight years.

I’m certainly no expert on the Yankees farm system, but even I can see that the talent, especially in the pitching corps, is overflowing at the moment. There are guys like Ohlendorff, Horne, Bettances, McCutchen, Brackman, Sanchez, Marquez, Kontos, Whelan, Cox, Robertson, McAllister and Jackson that if you don’t know already, you better get a subscription to PinstripesPlus.com, Baseball America or Pending Pinstripes and start learning about them. Go to Chad Jenning’s Triple-A blog or Mark Ashmore’s Trenton Thunder blog and read what they’re saying about the future of your team. Both are indispensable resources. Google their names for God’s sake. The future of the Yankees isn’t players with $150 million dollar price tags, it’s guys that are currently growing in the back yard that cost next to nothing in the Yankees financial universe.

To put it bluntly, the Yankees won the Santana sweepstakes by not spending and not giving for which future rewards will be reaped upon them. It’s quite biblical.

With pitchers and catchers reporting to Tampa in 20 more days, I thought we’d take a daily look at all 26 non-roster invitees in alphabetical order. If all goes according to plan, we’ll wrap up this series on February 13th with infielder Marcos Vechionacci, one day before Yankee camp officially opens.

One word of caution - I do not claim to be a scout. Most of my sourcing will come from various interviews, profiles, videos and looking at statistics. The series is meant to be a learning tool as we prep for the opening of Spring Training. I invite all of you to add to the discussion in the comments section, post links on said player or, if you have a story, feel free to share it.

Is the next prospect Jacoby Ellsbury-lite?:

BRETT GARDNER

Position: OF
Born: August 24, 1983 - Holly Hill, South Carolina
Height: 5-10
Weight: 180
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
High School: Holly Hill (SC)
College: College of Charleston

2008 Prospect Rankings:

• Ranked as a C+ prospect by John Sickels
• Ranked 8th in the Yankee system by Baseball America

Statistics
Complete Minor League Stats

Background

Gardner was selected by the Yankees in the 3rd Round (109th overall) of 2005 amateur entry draft out of the College of Charleston. A former college walk-on, Gardner has sprung through the system, beginning his second full season at Trenton and ending at Triple-A Scranton/WB where he batted .260/.343./.331. He lit-up the Arizona Fall League just a few months ago (.343 avg., 16 steals) and projects to be the starting centerfielder in Scranton this coming season.

Offensive Skills

Gardner’s offensive game is simple – get on-base and make things happen. Over the last two seasons he has succeeded on 84 percent of his stolen base attempts. He has no power whatsoever to speak of – only one home run in his last two minor league seasons – and can sometimes look over-powered at the plate. Up until now, he’s been mostly a slap hitter, although, he is one of the best bunters in the whole minor league system. He’s patient at the plate and not afraid to take a walk, but he needs to work on lowering his strikeout totals. Developing a little power, however, is essential if he wants to be considered a true prospect who can start in the major leagues.

Defensive Skills

Because of his electric speed, Gardner has plus range in centerfield, making him a superb defender. He’s never been afraid to lay his body out and is always aggressive on balls hit his way. His arm is serviceable, but below average.

Projection and Outlook

Gardner will start the year at Triple-A if he’s unable to land a reserve outfield spot out of Spring Training (highly unlikely). Many scouts and members of the organization have compared Gardner to Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury. Gardner needs a little more work on his offensive game before he puts himself in Ellsbury’s league, but I don’t think the comparisons are very far off. He really needs to level out his swing and become more of a line drive, gap hitter and then use his speed to turn doubles into triples. The only way he gets to the majors this year is if Shelley Duncan or Jason Lane falter and/or Johnny Damon or Melky Cabrera suffer an injury. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, he should be in line for a September call-up.

Below are profiles I’ve already completed in case you missed one or all of them:

All non-roster invitee profiles are available in the sidebar as well.

NEXT UP: Daniel Giese, RHP

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus ranks Melky Cabrera as one who might have a break-out year in 2008:

Cabrera went backwards in ’07, but not by enough for concern. Remember that he is just 23 years old and has more than 1100 plate appearances in the majors, with average to average-plus defense (good physical tools, but very raw, takes bad routes) and a very good 129/96 K/BB. He is a mature player offensively, patient at the plate and fair on the bases (25-for-35 stealing in his career). One interesting quirk is his G/F ratio, which is 1.63 for his career and was a whopping 1.81 last season. Cabrera is listed at 5’11” and 200 pounds. He’s not Willy Taveras, but rather a player who should be developing power and learning how to drive the ball, rather than hitting the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time.

I’m reminded of Alex Rios, who doesn’t look a thing like Cabrera. Rios was largely disappointing in 2004 and 2005, hitting just 11 homers in more than 900 at-bats, with an isolated power of 117. The problem: Rios was hitting the ball on the ground too much, a 1.82 G/F in those two seasons. Starting in ’06, Rios put the ball in the air more than half the time, and became a star. When you look at Cabrera’s body, his established control of the strike zone, and his ability to hold his own at a young age, you recognize that all it’s going to take is for him to start elevating the ball. Cabrera may not get there in 2008, but he’s going to pop 80 extra-base hits and slug .500 in a season very, very soon.

Can you buy what Sheehan is selling?

Joseph P. over at RAB took a look at Melky’s offense and defense from 2007 and came away unimpressed.

Being that he’s only 23, maybe we shouldn’t be so quick to throw in the towel on Melky. 2008 could be the year we really see what Cabrera is made of now that he’s been handed the centerfield job going into spring training.

When Hank-Stein said last night that they had the best offer on the table for Santana, even better than the package that Boston put together, you had to know that the fat-boy up North was just licking his chops.

Well, without further ado, I give you Curt Schilling’s rebuttal to Stein’s remarks:

If we make the move we’ll have done so with Theo knowing whatever he had to trade to acquire him he can restock those spots either from within, or via trade. How much is too much when you’re talking about trading for the best left handed pitcher in the game? How much is too much when you consider what he and Josh could do over the next 5-6 years.

Whatever is too much I am more than confident that we won’t get there. Based on the offers I know are out there I can’t see anyone out bidding us talent wise.

Listen, Jon Lester is a quality pitcher, but no one in baseball pegs him as a top of the rotation talent. Jacoby is a nice little player, but with only 40 or so at-bats under his belt, who knows what type of major league outfielder he’ll become.

Phil Hughes, on the other hand, has been talked about by baseball types as a guy that can lead a rotation. A true number one. And Melky Cabrera isn’t some second-rate center fielder and he’s certainly more accomplished in his career than Ellsbury is.

If the Red Sox line-up Crisp, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lester, Lowrie, Masterson, Bowden or Cox, the Yankees can counter with Hughes, Cabrera, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Jackson, Tabata, Miranda, Horne and Marquez.

For Curt to say that “I can’t see anyone out bidding us talent wise” is just preposterous.

What an idiot.

JOHAN SANTANA, RHP
Santana’s Stats

From John Heyman of SI.com:

The Yankees have set a Monday deadline for the Twins to respond to their proposed trade of top young pitcher Phil Hughes, center fielder Melky Cabrera and a third prospect for superstar pitcher Johan Santana, SI.com has learned.

So assuming the Yankees strictly stick to their deadline, it is very likely there will be a resolution regarding Santana — widely considered baseball’s best pitcher — by the end of Monday.

Is this just posturing, as PeterAbe believes, or are the Yankees serious? Remember, they went back on their word with A-Rod so don’t be surprised if this extends on into the later part of the week.

I have a feeling, however, that Cashman and Hank-Stein won’t put up with this back and forth the Twins are playing with them and the Red Sox.

Buckle your seat belts…

UPDATE: Hank-Stein confirms deadline

Kat O’Brien of Newsday has the skinny:

Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said by phone Sunday evening that he wants to hear back from the Twins on the Yankees’ offer of righthander Phil Hughes, centerfielder Melky Cabrera and a third, lesser minor-league player by sometime Monday. After that, he plans to pull the offer, which he said is a final offer.

“By tomorrow,” Steinbrenner said Sunday.

“I think our offer is the best offer,” Steinbrenner said. “We have the best young pitchers in the game, even better than Boston.”

“The Twins are aware of it(deadline), that I’m not going to wait much longer. And the truth of the matter is, they don’t want to be stuck with only one team to deal with. If they’re stuck with just Boston, they’re going to get a lot less. I’m not going to be played. This is not a game. This is serious business. I’m not going to be played, us against the Red Sox. That’s not going to happen.”

What did I tell ya! Hank-Stein ain’t no playa.

Also, Kenny Rosenthal of FoxSports.com is reporting that Johan Santana has told the Twins that he won’t be willing to lift his no-trade clause during the season. This puts even more pressure on Minnesota to move the two-time Cy Young award winner

***Hat tip to Ian of Sox and Dawgs for the Newsday Link

A few things today from Buster Olney of ESPN:

• Olney reports that the Yankees want to know relatively soon, possibly as late as Tuesday, whether or not the Twins are accepting their deal of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and another prospect for Johan Santana. Id they receive no answer, the Yankees are prepared to pull out of the deal.

• The Yankees are also refusing to give up another high-level prospect as the third part in the deal. That means pitchers Ian Kennedy or Alan Horne, or outfielder Austin Jackson, for example, are safe for now.

• The Red Sox have agreed to include center-fielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Santana, but are still refusing to include two of the three players the Twins want. The other two players are pitchers Jon Lester and/or Clay Buchholz

The winter meetings start tomorrow in Nashville. Expect these talks to reach a fever pitch in the next two days.

From the Daily News:

After two days of internal discussions among front-office executives, the Yankees swallowed hard Friday and decided to offer Phil Hughes to the Twins as part of the trade package they hope will land them Johan Santana.

“We’re going for it,” was the way one club source put it.

Based on their talks with Twins GM Bill Smith, the Yankees knew they couldn’t make a deal for Santana without including Hughes, their 21-year-old righthander widely regarded as a potential staff ace.
The Yanks had declared Joba Chamberlain off limits, and the Twins told them that Ian Kennedy, the third of their three prized righthanders, wouldn’t be enough. According to the club source, there was spirited internal debate in the organization via conference calls about whether to make Hughes available.

The report went on to say that Hal Steinbrenner, GM Brian Cashman and scout/vice president Gene Michaels were on the conference call.

I hate to lose Hughes, but I think Santana can be a difference maker for the Yankees. The bigger hole to fill might be in center field. If they sign Santana for multiple years and loads of dough, the likely hood of them pursuing Andrew Jones or Aaron Rowand diminishes significantly. I’ll go on record to say that I don’t think they should sign either one of them anyway.

We’ll see how this all plays out.

From Nick Cafardo of BG’s Extra Bases:

The Red Sox appear to be smack in the middle of the action, according to one major league source. There’s a lot of silence coming from Yawkey Way, always an indication there’s something big in the works. According to what we’ve been told by a couple of major league sources is that the Sox would be willing to part with Tony Conigliaro Award winner Jon Lester over Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden over Justin Masterson. The Twins would take Coco Crisp to be their new center-fielder instead of the untouchable Jacoby Ellsbury, but doing that means the Sox would have to kick in another significant prospect. While sources did not confirm who that prosoect was, ESPN reported that it might be shortstop Jed Lowrie.

At this stage the Twins are still trying to sort out who is willing to offer what. The Yankees are still very much in the hunt with their talks centering around Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano.

“Centering around Robinson Cano”? I’ve read a few reports that have thrown around his name, but not where he’s been at the center of negotiations. The Yankees are not making Cano available. I think Cafardo was just reporting out of his ass.