MY BASEBALL BIAS

While we wait for the Mets and Santana to dot the i’s and cross the t’s of a contract extension, I thought we’d take a look at what people are saying about the trade and what the future holds for the Yankees after abstaining from obtaining the Cy Young lefty.

I find it interesting that Jim Callis of Baseball America, the one guy who actually follows the minor leagues, is not getting more press this morning in the papers and the blogosphere. Here is what he had to say about the package of players the Twins are getting:

Minnesota might be better off if those talks collapse, giving new Twins GM Bill Smith a chance to find a better return for Santana. While he’s going to command possibly the richest contract ever given to a pitcher, Santana is the best pitcher in the game. And Smith didn’t get enough for him.

Guerra (No. 2), Gomez (No. 3), Mulvey (No. 4) and Humber (No. 7) all ranked prominently on our Mets Top 10 Prospects list. But there’s simply too much risk involved in this deal for Minnesota.

The two best prospects in the trade, Guerra and Gomez, come with high ceilings but also lack a lot of polish and have a long ways to go to reach their potential. The odds that they both will do so are slim.

Guerra has an 89-94 mph fastball and a promising changeup and he’s only 18. But he also has a below-average breaking ball, has yet to pitch more than 90 innings in a season and while he has held his own, he hasn’t dominated. Gomez had the best package of tools in the Mets system, but his bat is still extemely raw as evidenced by his career .273/.331/.384 averages in the minors.

Mulvey has an arsenal of four average pitches and throws strikes. He’s not overpowering and he’s most likely a No. 4 starter. Since having Tommy John surgery in 2005, Humber hasn’t fully regained the stuff that made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft. His curveball is his best pitch but his fastball now sits at 87-91 mph. He too projects as a No. 4 starter.

So let’s see here, according to Callis the Twins received two guys with “high ceilings” who lack polish and two guys who don’t project out to be more that “No. 4 starters”? When I read Callis’s post yesterday I felt like calling Omar Minaya myself and congratulating him for finding a sucker to take those players. Guerra and Gomez seem like they have a better chance of success than Humber and Mulvey, but still, Bill Smith did a bad job here in my opinion.

Aaron Gleeman give us a glimpse from the perspective of someone who follows the Twins closely:

…getting Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber from the Mets likely beats keeping Santana for one more season and taking a pair of draft picks when he departs as a free agent. A toolsy center fielder who hasn’t shown much offensively, a very raw 18-year-old pitcher, and a pair of MLB-ready middle-of-the-rotation starters is no one’s idea of a great haul for Santana, but it’s not a horrible one and Smith may have backed himself into a corner by not jumping on better offers immediately.

The end result of a bad situation handled poorly is a mediocre package of players that has no one excited, but even acquiring Hughes or Ellsbury wouldn’t have made losing Santana easy to live with. Trading away one of the best players in franchise history while he’s still at the top of his game is a horrible thing and doing so without getting the best possible return for him is extremely disappointing, but the Santana trade still has a chance to work out in the Twins’ favor. It just could have been better.

If the reports are accurate, that the Yankees really did have a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and a prospect on the table and the Red Sox had two packages, one centered around Jacoby Ellsbury and one around Jon Lester, then yes, the Twins really could have done better. Hughes, one of the top three pitching prospects in all of baseball, was dangled out there before the Winter Meetings, ripe for the taking. All Smith had to do was check with the Red Sox and see if they wanted to up there offer. But he overplayed his hand. Yes that’s right, I said it, he overplayed his hand. You can say he was patient or just fielding all the offers, but the fact is he held on to Santana too long and interest from the Red Sox and Yankees waned.

The Yankees, well, more like Hank Steinbrenner, was quite desperate to make a splash for Santana. I believe he would have pulled the trigger on a deal back before the meetings began because he wanted a big name. Having to wait like he did gave GM Brian Cashman and his brother the Hal the chance to talk him out of it from two different fronts - don’t trade the young talent we’ve developed (Cashman’s argument) and let us have some financial restraint (Hal’s argument). In the end, Hank held on and I think he Yankees will be better for it. Certainly if the Mets are winning Championships across town and if the Yankees are playing second fiddle to the Red Sox and if the prospects don’t live up to expectations, then sure, maybe you should have made a deal. But isn’t that a lot of if’s?

Sanatana, when it comes down to it, is one player who is commanding a huge price. Is he worth it? I believe yes, but some will disagree. Could the Yankees have afforded him? Of course. In fact, they could have probably afforded five Santanas. At some point, however, you have to realize that other teams are winning without the high-priced talent that the Yankees have come to covet over the last eight years.

I’m certainly no expert on the Yankees farm system, but even I can see that the talent, especially in the pitching corps, is overflowing at the moment. There are guys like Ohlendorff, Horne, Bettances, McCutchen, Brackman, Sanchez, Marquez, Kontos, Whelan, Cox, Robertson, McAllister and Jackson that if you don’t know already, you better get a subscription to PinstripesPlus.com, Baseball America or Pending Pinstripes and start learning about them. Go to Chad Jenning’s Triple-A blog or Mark Ashmore’s Trenton Thunder blog and read what they’re saying about the future of your team. Both are indispensable resources. Google their names for God’s sake. The future of the Yankees isn’t players with $150 million dollar price tags, it’s guys that are currently growing in the back yard that cost next to nothing in the Yankees financial universe.

To put it bluntly, the Yankees won the Santana sweepstakes by not spending and not giving for which future rewards will be reaped upon them. It’s quite biblical.

Ken Rosenthal is reporting this afternoon that the Yankees are close to a four-year deal with Robinson Cano worth $30 million that would buy out all of his arbitration years.

I wonder if this Yankee organization is beginning to “get it”. If they end up deciding not to swing a deal for Santana, look at the decisions the Yankees have made this off-season that are highly unusual for a club that has always gone after older, big-ticket items and tended to not think very much of their young talent.

• 1. Have so far been reluctant to trade prospects Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for Johan Santana, going against what they have always done - give away the young talent for proven veterans that will end up costing them a boat load of money.

• 2. Have shown concern over signing Santana to contract that could reach close to $140M further adding to an already bloating payroll.

• 3. Have not been as active in the free-agent reliever market (with the exception of LaTroy Hawkins) deciding instead to pick from internal candidates.

• 4. Have finally, after years of refusing to do so, locked up one of their young star players by buying out the rest of his (Cano) arbitration years.

I wonder if there is a deal in the works for Wang as well. And why why not? He pitches deep into games and has shown himself to be durable enough to throw over 400 innings the last two years on top of winning 38 games. Add that to the above list and I would say the front office has completely changed their philosophy in one short off-season.

Amazing.

Hat tip to Joseph P. at River Ave. Blues for the Rosenthal link.

John Heyman of SI.com thinks the Mets are the team in the lead for Santana at the moment:

Once written off as an extreme long shot in the long-running Johan Santana drama, the Mets may actually be the favorite now. At the very least, there are indications now that they are engaging in more regular dialogue with the Twins in recent days than either the Red Sox or Yankees. And Mets general manager Omar Minaya, who loves a big deal but hasn’t made one since the winter before last, has told some people in the business, “We have a shot.”

Heyman also tells us what we already know - the Yankees remain the “wildcard” because of Hank-Stein, Cashman doesn’t want to give away the prospects and Hal’s not to keen on spending the money.

La Velle E. Neal III who writes Twins Insider for the StarTribune.com backs up Heyman but says the team is still talking with the Red Sox and the Yankees about possible deals for Santana.

Ho-hum.

A few things floating around out there today re: Santana.

Charley Waters of TwinCities.com reports that the Mets may be the most likely destination now for Santana:

…word within baseball circles is that offers by the New York Yankees (no more Phil Hughes) and Boston Red Sox are diminishing by the week. Best bet now for a trade of the two-time Cy Young Award winner appears to be with the New York Mets in a deal that would not include fast-rising hitter Fernando Martinez.

So lets get this straight.

Yankees: No more Hughes
Red Sox: Vague reference to a diminishing offer
Mets: No more Francisco Martinez

If you’re Twins GM Bill Smith, have you waited too long to deal?

Kat O’Brien of Newsday says that the three teams are still keeping tabs:

Indications are that things have remained relatively stagnant in trade talks on Santana, but that the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox all retain some interest in the lefthander.

The saga continues…

Via LoHud, here’s hoping Brian Cashman got a hold of this and gave it to Hank Steinbrenner.

Buster Olney muses today (free insider preview) that the Twins might want to hold on Santana.

Here is his reasoning:

If I was in Smith’s (Minnestota’s GM) shoes, I’d keep Santana. Because to trade him would be to forgo the opportunity to contend in 2008, when the Twins have a chance to be a good team, with Francisco Liriano returning, with Joe Nathan closing, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young hitting in the middle of their lineup.

If the Twins struggle early, Smith could dangle Santana again during the season — and odds are he could get offers in quality to what he has now from the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets, and maybe even better, depending on the level of desperation of the teams involved. For example, if Andy Pettitte is distracted in the lawyered-up life he must live these days and struggles, and the Yankees are dying for a frontline pitcher like Santana, they might relent and give up Hughes and Ian Kennedy (depending on the development of other minor league pitchers). If the Red Sox were hit by injuries at the front of their rotation, the outlook of their ownership might change. The Twins may look more favorably on the Mets’ farm system by July, and find that there are pieces that they like more in the summer than they have this winter.

I suppose they could do that, but why deal with the constant distraction? If you’re Smith, wouldn’t you rather start the season without having to answer questions about Santana’s status every day? If it we’re me, I’d probably make a deal as soon as possible and move on. Why delay the inevitable? Plus, what if Santana suffers an injury during the season while he’s still with Minnesota? Haven’t you literally screwed yourself if that happens? As much as I like his writing, I’m not sure Olney has thought this one completely through.

If you’re a gambling man, sure, you take the chance and hold on to him. I just think it’s a foolish bet.

The tune has changed once again.

From SI.com:

“It’s still in the deciding process,” Steinbrenner said Monday night outside Legends Field at the Yankees’ spring training complex. “We’re still discussing it. There’s still a little talk back and forth.”

Steinbrenner said reports that the Yankees recently withdrew a formal offer to the Twins are not true.

“There wasn’t an official offer anyway. You can’t withdraw something that wasn’t there,” Steinbrenner said. “There was no official offer on the table at this time.”

This saga is laughable, that’s all I have to say.

Hat tip to Ian of Sox and Dawgs.

From ESPN.com:

For the second time this offseason, the Yankees have pulled their Phil Hughes-centered trade offer for Johan Santana off the table.

The Yankees, then, will not restart trade talks with the Twins unless Hank Steinbrenner has another change of heart, a baseball official with knowledge of the talks told 1050 ESPN Radio’s Andrew Marchand.

The Yankees’ desire Monday to turn their attention away from the two-time Cy Young winner leaves Boston and the New York Mets as Minnesota’s trade partners, the official told Marchand.

Judging from what’s been said in the past, let’s be extremely careful to read too much into this report. I think the longer Santana remains a Twin, the less likely it is he ends up in the Bronx.

Most reports at the moment have the Mets in the lead for his services because they need him the most. Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog.com has the latest here as it related to the Mets landing Santana.

Think about it, if the Mets land Santana, that will have been two players (Carlos Beltran being the other) that the Yankees actively pursued but ultimately decided against due to the cost involved.

Hank-Stein told Newsday that he is unwilling to go above five-years for Santana’s services:

The payroll would just be out of this world this year,” Steinbrenner said of potentially adding Santana, “but only for this year. When you’ve got to trade top young talent and pay a lot of money, it gets very risky.”

If the Yankees do complete a trade for Santana, Steinbrenner said they would not go beyond a five-year contract extension (one that expires after the 2013 season).

“I wouldn’t do it if it were a six- or seven-year contract,” Steinbrenner said. “I wouldn’t go past five, on an extension.”

The contract would still pay Santana into his mid-thirties which I’m just not comfortable with. I think fiscal restraint is the way to go here and I’ll keep saying it until I’m blue in the face - Why dish out another $100-$120 million now when you can upgrade offensively and defensively by making a run at Mark Teixeira in 2009?

Also, Hank reiterated that the organization wants Joba to be a starter, not a reliever.

Hank-Stein makes it clear who’s running the show in the Bronx these days:

“I always told him (GM Brian Cashman), `I’m going to make the final decisions because when you’re the owner you should,”‘ Steinbrenner said. “He is the general manager, and he has the right to talk me out of it and he has talked me out of some things.”

What a clever thing to say. Hank really puts Cashman in his place. Remember, when Cashman signed his current three-year deal in 2005, he essentially had final say on all player moves. It seems to me that Hank, his brother Hal and Randy Levine decided after this past season that Cashman had too much power, thus creating a power vacuum we have witnessed all off-season.

And Hank again speaks on Santana:

“Nothing is really decided at this point,” Steinbrenner said Friday night outside Legends Field at the team’s spring training complex. “I’m still leaning towards doing it. There’s others leaning not to do it. There are some others that are leaning to do it also. Disagreements within the organization. Nothing major, but just different opinions. I’ve changed my opinion a couple times.”

“I’m very happy with our young pitchers,” he said.

Of course, we believe you. Now just hang on to them… all of them.