MY BASEBALL BIAS

From the NYT’s:

“Joba has electric stuff,” said Guidry, during an appearance last month at
Fameabilia, a sports collectables store in Red Bank, N.J.

“You saw what he could do out of the bullpen. He dominates. And it makes your bullpen a lot stronger if he’s in there.”

In 19 regular-season games, Chamberlain went 2-0 with a 0.38 earned run average, including 34 strikeouts in 24 innings.

“If other guys in the bullpen step up and do the job that they are supposed to do,” Guidry added, “then it would be easy to put him in the rotation.”

“The spot has to be there for Joba to go in,” Guidry said. “What are you going to do with the other guys? You still have Wang, Pettitte, Hughes and Moose with one spot left,” said Guidry, referring to Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and Mussina. “If Joba’s a starter, then you’re not going to be
developing a guy like Ian Kennedy because there’s no spot for him.”

I can tell you this - Guidry is spot on with his assessment of the bullpen. The guys that are assigned to that role out of Spring Training need to “step up” and do their job. Then you have no need for Joba in the pen. Easier said than done, I know.

Regarding Kennedy, you could easily see him end up in Triple-A to start the year if no one gets injured out of camp. His role could easily be one of spot starter based on different scenarios that may arise during the season.

Steve Goldman of YESNetwork.com is back at it with a look at Joba’s role in 2008:

The Yankees think that Joba can be an above-average starter, and it seems to me that given the outs that get absorbed in that role, that would be more valuable than limiting him to 80 innings in relief no matter how strong. The Yankees would be left with a deficit of 100 innings in the starting rotation that are likely to be filled by someone else, someone of lesser ability: Mike Mussina or an Ian Kennedy who has been figured out by the league. In a close race, those innings will make a great difference to the outcome.

Everyone seems to agree that Joba is more of an asset in the rotation than the pen. The bigger issue for Girardi and his staff is how the Yankees structure his innings between the two.

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus pinch-hit today over at LoHud. He looks at the “Verducci Rule” and how it pertains to the Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy. Not sure I learned much by reading it other than the organization needs to be careful (which we are already aware), but it was a good read nonetheless.

David Pinto of Baseball Musings is looking at team offenses in MLB and starts with the Yankees today. It’s a great starting point for predicting how many runs they might score this year.

Pinto adds this:

Even though Wilson(Betemit) and Shelly(Duncan) are not Giambi in terms of OBA and power, they still project to hit well. That gives the Yankees two players off the bench capable of getting on base at better than a league average clip. That’s flexibility Joe Girardi should appreciate. Quite simply put, what every combination the Yankees settle on will be among the league leaders in runs scored.

It will be interesting to see how Girardi handles the first-base platoon.

Hank offers up a bit more on Joba’s role in 2008:

Steinbrenner said one option is to have Chamberlain start the season in the bullpen, when teams normally needed just four starters, and then join the rotation. The decision will be made by manager Joe Girardi and pitching coach Dave Eiland.

“He will be a starter. That’s everybody’s intention,” Steinbrenner said. “How to start him out the year and build up his innings, and how to get him to that point is up to Girardi and Eiland. They may want to start him out in the bullpen and go to a starter. Or he could go a couple other different options.”

Exactly what I said the other day, leave it up to Girardi, Eiland and Cashman to decide what’s best for Joba. I feel more comfortable knowing that Eiland actually has a relationship with Chamberlain. That will help this situation tremendously.

Did I miss something? Why are people up in arms about Cashman’s comments concerning Joba:

“We’re going to prepare him as a starter and we see him as a starter,” Yankee GM Brian Cashman said yesterday. “But we have an innings limit that he won’t exceed. How we manage the innings limit remains to be seen. The plan is to have him start, but there are a number of scenarios that we’ll review.”

Listen. There’s nothing wrong with the organization wanting to protect one of their young studs. I don’t think Cashman or Girardi envision a scenario where Joba is switching between the starting rotation and the bullpen on a regular basis. They’ll map out a plan with pitching coach Dave Eiland and come to a reasonable conclusion on the matter. And let me be clear, I wouldn’t use him in the eighth inning as a bridge to Mariano. You could easily fall in love with him in that role all over again. An option would be to use him in long relief and/or two to three innings at a time.

I think what Cashman is saying is very positive. You can’t expect a 22 year-old pitcher who threw 88 innings as a starter in the minors and 24 innings in relief at the major league level to take the ball every fifth day all season long. I think they’ll cap his innings somewhere between 130-150.

Expect to see a few guys from Triple-A take a turn or two as well.

While browsing around the inter-webs today, I noticed this online poll posted over at yesnetwork.com:

First things first - not many people have confidence in Kyle Farnsworth. And I would bet that half of those votes came from the Girardi family. We are all aware of the problems with Farnsworth - he throws hard, but very straight and he can’t, for some unknown reason, pitch on consecutive days. Not much support here from the Yankee faithful and rightfully so. Many of us fans have even screamed for a trade. Girardi seems determined to make Farny his project, but he’ll more than likely just drive him out of town.

As you can see, I voted for LaTroy Hawkins and let me explain why. I’ve never been sold on Farnsworth and Joba Chamberlain should remain in the rotation, plain and simple. A talent like Joba needs to be maximized - with limits of course. I think LaTroy will have his ups and downs, but at least he doesn’t throw darts that get hit out of the park. He doesn’t strike many batters out anymore, but he possesses a plus sinker.

Most of the voters chose Chamberlain. I can understand why based on his 2007 results from late in the season. He was absolutely dominate. I would rather see that domination through six innings, however, and not one.

Thoughts?

What’s in the papers this morning?

• Kevin Kernan of the NY Post has a great article today on Joba Chamberlian. Kernan followed Joba and is Dad Harlan around Lincoln, Nebraska and writes a nice profile of the young man. It’s a nice break from all the steroid stuff.

• Hank Steinbrenner is 100% percent behind his pitcher Andy Pettitte and his decision to apologize for using HGH in 2002. No regrets signing him back. Oh yeah, those championships aren’t tainted either.

• Remember that guy McNamee who gave up Clemens, Pettitte and a few others? Here’s a very critical report on the man from an acquaintance of his. I just don’t know who to believe anymore. Former pitcher C. J. Nowitski gave a glowing report of McNamee yesterday that was printed in all the major newspapers. No we have someone coming out to say that he’s a liar, an “alcoholic” and “a troubled soul. Makes you wonder who’s the credible one in all of this.

• Hank made it clear today when discussing any deal for Johan Santana: “I am not giving up two of the three,” Steinbrenner said of Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Hughes, the Holy Trio of the Yankees’ pitching-rich organization. “That’s not going to happen.” Very good to hear. And at this point, I don’t think he should part with any of them.

• Mike Lupica has no sympathy for Andy Pettitte. What’s new. John Harper believes that Roger Clemens‘ denial no longer holds up after Pettitte’s apology.

Don’t forget to tune in today at 3:00 PM ET to our radio show The Hits Keep Coming where Ian of Sox and Dawgs and Anthony of the Oriole Post join me in discussing the latest developments regarding the Mitchell Report.

Also, A-Rod will be interviewed on 60 minutes tonight. Check your local listings.

DAVID RISKE, RHP

Riske’s Stats

From ESPN.com:

David Riske, the veteran relief pitcher who compiled a 2.45 ERA in 65 games for the Kansas City Royals last season, is on the verge of agreeing to a multiyear deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, according to a club source.

The Yankees had shown some interest in Riske, but it looks like they’ll now turn their attention to re-signing Luis Vizcaino.

Other relievers that remain on the Yankees radar are lefty-specialist Ron Mahay and LaTroy Hawkins. Don’t count out a minor-league deal for Ron Villone and a “fix-it” plan for Kyle Farnsworth either.

The way it’s shaping up, the ‘08 bullpen could be a revolving door with no true set-up man for Mo Rivera unless Farnsworth miraculously finds his head, or, they call on Joba (highly unlikely).

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has released his top 11 Yankee prospects. You need a subscription to read his thoughts, but I’ll at least give you the list below:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Joba Chamberlain, RHP

Four-Star Prospects
2. Ian Kennedy, RHP
3. Austin Jackson, OF
4. Jose Tabata, OF
5. Alan Horne, RHP

Three-Star Prospects
6. Dellin Betances, RHP
7. Jesus Montero, C
8. Andrew Brackman, RHP
9. Edwar Ramirez, RHP
10. Kelvin DeLeon, OF
Two-Star Prospects
11. Humberto Sanchez, RHP

Just Missing: Frank Cervelli, C; Jeff Marquez, RHP; Ross Ohlendorf, RHP; Brad Suttle, 3B

You’ll notice Austin Jackson has worked his way up the Yankee prospect ladder with Goldstein commenting “A star-level outfielder who contributes 20/20 seasons annually.” No wonder the Twins are interested.

There is no off-season when it comes to the New York Yankees, we all know that.

It has been a crazy few days with the Johan Santana headlines dominating the NY Papers and the Yankee blogosphere.

Here’s what we know: No deal has been struck for Santana and don’t expect one to happen until at least the winter meetings. I would be shocked if the Twins have an agreement in place before next week.

There are various reports about what team is the favorite to land Santana and various rumors as to the type of package teams have assembled. Let’s take a look at the reports.

John Heyman of SI.com reported last night that the Twins have asked the Yankees for either Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy plus center fielder Melky Cabrera and one or two younger prospects. That would make the total package either three or four players. If you believe the Heyman report, the Twins are now willing to take Ian Kennedy over Hughes or Chamberlain. Could a Kennedy/Cabrera/Horne paackage get it done? You have to make that deal if that’s what the Twins agree to, don’t you? Heyman also noted that the Red Sox will not give up prospect Jacoby Ellsbury, but if they had a change of heart, that could be the player that seals the deal for Boston. The Sox would like to unload Coco Crisp.

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com wonders if the trade of Matt Garza by the Twins to the Rays for Delmon Young might actually keep Santana in Minnesota. I highly doubt it. It looks like the Twins are in complete rebuilding mode.

Joel Sherman of the NY Post muses on the possibility of the Mets landing Santana. They don’t have the quality of players to offer that the Red Sox and Yankees do, plus they aren’t going to trade away Jose Reyes or David Wright either. Count them out.

A few quick things from Newsday: Wallace Matthews believes the Yankees can’t allow the Red Sox to land Santana, no matter what the price. Kat O’Brien was able to get a scout’s perspective on how well Santana would pitch in New York and the report was extremely positive. O’Brien also notes that the Yankees have no worries about Santana’s late-season slump in 2007. After a 17-strikeout performance against the rangers on Aug. 19th, Santana went 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA in his last seven starts.

Mark Feinsand of the Daily News writes that the Twins have interest in Yankees reliever Mark Melancon who missed 200y after having elbow surgery. Alan Horne may be an option in a trade as well.

Its simple folks: lack of a dominant, strikeout pitcher.

There’s a great article over at Baseball Analysts that compares K/100 pitches with K/9 IP. The argument is that a higher strikeout total in relation to a lower pitch count (K/100 pitches) is a better “recipe for success” than how many strikeouts a pitcher racks up over 9 innings, or K/9 IP.

Decide for yourself, based on the data provided, whether the argument holds up.

What I find extremely bothersome, as a Yankee fan, is that we don’t have a pitcher that ranks in the top 50 of either of those categories.

The only two players ranked in the Top 80, mind you, are Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang.

• Pettitte: 215.3 IP | 141 SO | 3395 Pitches | 4.15 K/100 | 5.89 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 53
• Wang: 199.3 IP | 104 SO | 2861 Pitches | 3.64 K/100 | 4.70 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 79

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have two guys ranked in the top 10, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett.

• Matsuzaka: 204.7 IP | 201 SO | 3480 Pitches | 5.78 K/100