MY BASEBALL BIAS

Ken Rosenthal is reporting this afternoon that the Yankees are close to a four-year deal with Robinson Cano worth $30 million that would buy out all of his arbitration years.

I wonder if this Yankee organization is beginning to “get it”. If they end up deciding not to swing a deal for Santana, look at the decisions the Yankees have made this off-season that are highly unusual for a club that has always gone after older, big-ticket items and tended to not think very much of their young talent.

• 1. Have so far been reluctant to trade prospects Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for Johan Santana, going against what they have always done - give away the young talent for proven veterans that will end up costing them a boat load of money.

• 2. Have shown concern over signing Santana to contract that could reach close to $140M further adding to an already bloating payroll.

• 3. Have not been as active in the free-agent reliever market (with the exception of LaTroy Hawkins) deciding instead to pick from internal candidates.

• 4. Have finally, after years of refusing to do so, locked up one of their young star players by buying out the rest of his (Cano) arbitration years.

I wonder if there is a deal in the works for Wang as well. And why why not? He pitches deep into games and has shown himself to be durable enough to throw over 400 innings the last two years on top of winning 38 games. Add that to the above list and I would say the front office has completely changed their philosophy in one short off-season.

Amazing.

Hat tip to Joseph P. at River Ave. Blues for the Rosenthal link.

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus pinch-hit today over at LoHud. He looks at the “Verducci Rule” and how it pertains to the Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy. Not sure I learned much by reading it other than the organization needs to be careful (which we are already aware), but it was a good read nonetheless.

David Pinto of Baseball Musings is looking at team offenses in MLB and starts with the Yankees today. It’s a great starting point for predicting how many runs they might score this year.

Pinto adds this:

Even though Wilson(Betemit) and Shelly(Duncan) are not Giambi in terms of OBA and power, they still project to hit well. That gives the Yankees two players off the bench capable of getting on base at better than a league average clip. That’s flexibility Joe Girardi should appreciate. Quite simply put, what every combination the Yankees settle on will be among the league leaders in runs scored.

It will be interesting to see how Girardi handles the first-base platoon.

What’s in the papers this morning?

• Kevin Kernan of the NY Post has a great article today on Joba Chamberlian. Kernan followed Joba and is Dad Harlan around Lincoln, Nebraska and writes a nice profile of the young man. It’s a nice break from all the steroid stuff.

• Hank Steinbrenner is 100% percent behind his pitcher Andy Pettitte and his decision to apologize for using HGH in 2002. No regrets signing him back. Oh yeah, those championships aren’t tainted either.

• Remember that guy McNamee who gave up Clemens, Pettitte and a few others? Here’s a very critical report on the man from an acquaintance of his. I just don’t know who to believe anymore. Former pitcher C. J. Nowitski gave a glowing report of McNamee yesterday that was printed in all the major newspapers. No we have someone coming out to say that he’s a liar, an “alcoholic” and “a troubled soul. Makes you wonder who’s the credible one in all of this.

• Hank made it clear today when discussing any deal for Johan Santana: “I am not giving up two of the three,” Steinbrenner said of Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Hughes, the Holy Trio of the Yankees’ pitching-rich organization. “That’s not going to happen.” Very good to hear. And at this point, I don’t think he should part with any of them.

• Mike Lupica has no sympathy for Andy Pettitte. What’s new. John Harper believes that Roger Clemens‘ denial no longer holds up after Pettitte’s apology.

Don’t forget to tune in today at 3:00 PM ET to our radio show The Hits Keep Coming where Ian of Sox and Dawgs and Anthony of the Oriole Post join me in discussing the latest developments regarding the Mitchell Report.

Also, A-Rod will be interviewed on 60 minutes tonight. Check your local listings.

From PeteAbe:

Just spoke to a Yankees Exec Who Can Be Trusted and learned this:

The YEWCBT said that Brian Cashman has made his final offer and will not toss in Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne or Austin Jackson. That would seem to favor the Red Sox but the Dodgers and Angels are now getting in the mix with the Yankees on the outskirts.

Hughes, Melky and a mid-level prospect. Take it or leave it.

The Angels have now entered the mix for Santana as well reports Buster Olney.

Here are a few other rumors:

• Dan Haren’s name has been linked in two deals today. First with the Diamondbacks that would include Connor Jackson going to the A’s and a second deal with the Detroit Tigers. The A’s have asked the Tigers for both pitcher Andrew Miller and outfielder Cameron Maybin, but the Tigers seem unwilling to trade both of them.

• The big rumor today is Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis being shipped to the Tigers for Miller, Maybin and a few other prospects. Stay tuned on that one.

• The Dodgers may be close to landing Erik Bedard from the Orioles for Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton. The Orioles are crazy if they trade Bedard.

Back with more in a bit.

Here’s the latest from Jason Stark of ESPN:

With the Yankee’s self-imposed deadline approaching, the Twins and Yankees were getting nowhere Monday night in their attempt to complete a deal for Johan Santana. So the Yankees were again making noises that they might pull out of the Santana talks for good.

“I want to get it done by tonight, one way or another,” Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said, according to The Associated Press. “I’m waiting for a meeting in Nashville, and then Brian will give me a call.”

According to baseball officials who were aware of the talks, the Twins again asked the Yankees on Monday night for pitcher Ian Kennedy — a pitcher the Yankees have insisted for several days that they wouldn’t trade — as the third player in their proposed deal. The Yankees apparently turned down that proposal immediately.

If any deal includes Hughes and Kennedy, Cash has to walk away.

I’ll keep you updated through the night if anything further goes down.

A few things today from Buster Olney of ESPN:

• Olney reports that the Yankees want to know relatively soon, possibly as late as Tuesday, whether or not the Twins are accepting their deal of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and another prospect for Johan Santana. Id they receive no answer, the Yankees are prepared to pull out of the deal.

• The Yankees are also refusing to give up another high-level prospect as the third part in the deal. That means pitchers Ian Kennedy or Alan Horne, or outfielder Austin Jackson, for example, are safe for now.

• The Red Sox have agreed to include center-fielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Santana, but are still refusing to include two of the three players the Twins want. The other two players are pitchers Jon Lester and/or Clay Buchholz

The winter meetings start tomorrow in Nashville. Expect these talks to reach a fever pitch in the next two days.

Jack Curry of the NY Times starts us off this morning:

The Yankees have offered pitcher Ian Kennedy, center fielder Melky Cabrera and at least one minor league prospect, perhaps outfielder José Tabata. In the trade discussions, the Yankees have told the Twins that pitcher Joba Chamberlain is untouchable and that they do not want to deal pitcher Phil Hughes.

Because the Twins are insisting that Hughes must be a part of the package, the Yankees are mulling whether to make that concession. If the Yankees insert Hughes for Kennedy in their offer, they think it could be enough to obtain Santana. Of course, the Yankees, or any team that reached an agreement with the Twins, would then have the challenging task of signing Santana to a huge six- or seven-year contract in a 72-hour window.

So the Yankees have let it be known that “they do not want to deal pitcher Phil Hughes”, but “are mulling whether to make that concession”. I guarantee the Yankees and Red Sox aren’t going to show there final hand in all of this until the Twins ask for their “final offers”. Minnesota will then agree to a package of players from one team and ask the other bidder to either step up with a better offer or pass.

Of course another team other than the Yankees or Red Sox may come into play, especially if this drags into the winter meetings, which I fully expect it will. The Mets have already said Jose Reyes will not included in any trade so that would seem to eliminate them. The Angels and Dodgers, however, have the prospects to make a serious run at Santana. The only problem is Santana must first wave his no-trade clause and then both sides need to agree on a contract extension. It is believed that Santana and his agents will ask for a 6 or 7 year deal for at least $150 million dollars. Whether or not the Angles or Dodgers would be willing, or even capable to offer him that much money remains to be see.

So that leads us back to where we began. Yankees versus the Red Sox for all the marbles, or, in this case, one of the top pitchers in the game. The Red Sox have already proposed a package of pitcher Jon Lester, center fielder Coco Crisp, minor league shortstop Jed Lowrie and another minor league pitcher. The Yankees have countered with a very similar package in pitcher Ian Kennedy, center fielder Melky Cabrera and at least one minor league prospect, perhaps outfielder José Tabata. The Bombers could easily sweeten the pot with minor league pitcher Alan Horne or outfielder Austin Jackson.

Which team will win the Santana sweepstakes? If the Red Sox offer pitcher Clay Buchholz or center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, they’ll win the prize. If the Yankees cave and give up Hughes, Santana will be in pinstripes come February.

Money shouldn’t hold up any negotiations once a package has been agreed to. The team that balks, however, will be left to wonder what might have been.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has released his top 11 Yankee prospects. You need a subscription to read his thoughts, but I’ll at least give you the list below:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Joba Chamberlain, RHP

Four-Star Prospects
2. Ian Kennedy, RHP
3. Austin Jackson, OF
4. Jose Tabata, OF
5. Alan Horne, RHP

Three-Star Prospects
6. Dellin Betances, RHP
7. Jesus Montero, C
8. Andrew Brackman, RHP
9. Edwar Ramirez, RHP
10. Kelvin DeLeon, OF
Two-Star Prospects
11. Humberto Sanchez, RHP

Just Missing: Frank Cervelli, C; Jeff Marquez, RHP; Ross Ohlendorf, RHP; Brad Suttle, 3B

You’ll notice Austin Jackson has worked his way up the Yankee prospect ladder with Goldstein commenting “A star-level outfielder who contributes 20/20 seasons annually.” No wonder the Twins are interested.

There is no off-season when it comes to the New York Yankees, we all know that.

It has been a crazy few days with the Johan Santana headlines dominating the NY Papers and the Yankee blogosphere.

Here’s what we know: No deal has been struck for Santana and don’t expect one to happen until at least the winter meetings. I would be shocked if the Twins have an agreement in place before next week.

There are various reports about what team is the favorite to land Santana and various rumors as to the type of package teams have assembled. Let’s take a look at the reports.

John Heyman of SI.com reported last night that the Twins have asked the Yankees for either Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy plus center fielder Melky Cabrera and one or two younger prospects. That would make the total package either three or four players. If you believe the Heyman report, the Twins are now willing to take Ian Kennedy over Hughes or Chamberlain. Could a Kennedy/Cabrera/Horne paackage get it done? You have to make that deal if that’s what the Twins agree to, don’t you? Heyman also noted that the Red Sox will not give up prospect Jacoby Ellsbury, but if they had a change of heart, that could be the player that seals the deal for Boston. The Sox would like to unload Coco Crisp.

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com wonders if the trade of Matt Garza by the Twins to the Rays for Delmon Young might actually keep Santana in Minnesota. I highly doubt it. It looks like the Twins are in complete rebuilding mode.

Joel Sherman of the NY Post muses on the possibility of the Mets landing Santana. They don’t have the quality of players to offer that the Red Sox and Yankees do, plus they aren’t going to trade away Jose Reyes or David Wright either. Count them out.

A few quick things from Newsday: Wallace Matthews believes the Yankees can’t allow the Red Sox to land Santana, no matter what the price. Kat O’Brien was able to get a scout’s perspective on how well Santana would pitch in New York and the report was extremely positive. O’Brien also notes that the Yankees have no worries about Santana’s late-season slump in 2007. After a 17-strikeout performance against the rangers on Aug. 19th, Santana went 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA in his last seven starts.

Mark Feinsand of the Daily News writes that the Twins have interest in Yankees reliever Mark Melancon who missed 200y after having elbow surgery. Alan Horne may be an option in a trade as well.

Its simple folks: lack of a dominant, strikeout pitcher.

There’s a great article over at Baseball Analysts that compares K/100 pitches with K/9 IP. The argument is that a higher strikeout total in relation to a lower pitch count (K/100 pitches) is a better “recipe for success” than how many strikeouts a pitcher racks up over 9 innings, or K/9 IP.

Decide for yourself, based on the data provided, whether the argument holds up.

What I find extremely bothersome, as a Yankee fan, is that we don’t have a pitcher that ranks in the top 50 of either of those categories.

The only two players ranked in the Top 80, mind you, are Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang.

• Pettitte: 215.3 IP | 141 SO | 3395 Pitches | 4.15 K/100 | 5.89 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 53
• Wang: 199.3 IP | 104 SO | 2861 Pitches | 3.64 K/100 | 4.70 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 79

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have two guys ranked in the top 10, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett.

• Matsuzaka: 204.7 IP | 201 SO | 3480 Pitches | 5.78 K/100 | 8.84 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 8
• Beckett: 200.7 IP | 194 SO | 3100 Pitches | 6.26 K/100 | 8.70 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 9

Here are the top 5 pitchers of K/9 IP for 2007:

• Erik Bedard: 10.33 K/9 IP
• Scott Kazmir: 10.41 K/9 IP
• Jak