MY BASEBALL BIAS

Saw this SI.com article by Tom Verducci linked by Steve and Yankee GM Blog.

Verducci writes:

Without Santana, New York must plan for rotation instability in 2008. It can be done, but the odds begin to work against a team the more second-tier starters it has to plug in. (”Second tier” is not a blanket evaluation of talent — sometimes a replacement is better than the original — but a marker of stability.) Indeed, rotation stability has been one big reason why Boston has been winning the titles that used to belong to New York.

Can’t argue with that, especially last season when the Yankees had 41 starts from “second-tier starters” versus 22 from the Red Sox. It seemed like a new pitcher was taking the mound every night during the first month.

I could have sworn, at one point in late April, I saw Tommy John hobble out of the dugout and take the mound.

According the AP, the Yankees had the highest average salary ($7.47M) in the league last season for the 9th straight year. The Red Sox came in second at $5.46 million.

Revenues for the whole of MLB were up 4.6%:

Revenue among the 30 teams topped $6 billion for the first time last year and is projected to top $6.5 billion this year, according to commissioner Bud Selig said.

“That is, again, a manifestation of how popular the sport is,” Selig said Thursday after he was given a three-year contract extension through 2012. “It’s grown so dramatically in every way. So when I use those numbers, I use it not to talk about how much money we’re making as much as this is how big the sport has gotten.”

Ah Bud, you left out “and what eventually landed me another five years as commissioner”. Unreal.

Ken Davidoff of Newsday muses:

His superstar reputation badly damaged by baseball’s Mitchell Report, Roger Clemens doesn’t seem likely to turn into a recluse. Instead, two people familiar with Clemens’ thinking fully anticipate that he will pitch again in 2008.

“I really don’t think this would deter him from playing,” one person said, on the condition of anonymity. “He might think it would change the public opinion on him further. People would think, ‘Why would he come back and put up with all of this abuse if he did it?’”

The choices? The Astros and the Red Sox, says Davidoff. I can tell you right now, there is no way in hell he returns to the Red Sox. They have no need for another starting pitcher and I doubt that Theo and company would want the distraction, let alone pay him the $12 million he might ask for.

The Astros seem to be the only logical answer. He’d be in the National League, pitching close to home and the Houston press would probably leave him alone.

He will not be a Yankees in 2008, you count on that.

From Gordon Edes of the BG’s Extra Bases blog:

The Red Sox and Twins are through negotiating for now, Both Sox GM Theo Epstein and Twins GM Bill Smith have called it a night, but momentous news may await in the morning. As Amalie Benjamin reported an hour ago, the sides have exchanged medical information on pitcher Jon Lester and Johan Santana, indicating that a deal may be in place.

There were indications that the Twins would be getting center fielder Coco Crisp, pitcher Justin Masterson and infielder Jed Lowrie in addition to Lester, the winner of the Series-clinching Game 4 and a favorite of pitching coach John Farrell. But that was not confirmed. Repeat, That has not yet been confirmed. We’re working on it.

Even if an agreement has been reached between the teams, the Sox are expected to request a 72-hour window in which to try and negotiate a contract extension for Santana.

It looks like the Twins seem ready to accept the Red Sox package of players for Santana.  Nothing is done yet, as Gordo clearly warns “Red Sox Nation”, but a deal might snowball relatively fast from here.

A few late reports tonight on the Santana saga.

Buster Olney of ESPN first reported that the Twins have asked to see Jon Lester’s medical records:

With talks between the Yankees and Twins losing steam, the Red Sox have emerged as the favorite to land Johan Santana. The teams continued to talk from late Monday into early Tuesday morning, with the Twins even asking to see medical reports on Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester. Last week, the Red Sox offered Lester, outfielder Coco Crisp, minor league infielder Jed Lowrie and another minor league pitcher for Santana.

What are we to make of this? Are the Red Sox sweetening the deal by adding Lester to the mix along with Ellsbury and Lowrie?

Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe’s Extra Bases blog confirms the report as well:

The Red Sox have traded medical information with the Minnesota Twins on Jon Lester, which means that talks between the two teams have progressed, with the Twins taking a serious look at the Sox offer.

If the Red Sox are willing to give up Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie and $150 million dollars for Santana, I think the Yankees should bow out of the negotiations. I don’t believe they should include Kennedy as a knee jerk reaction to what the Red Sox may have proposed.

I was on board earlier to go and get Santana. If it meant giving up only one of the young guys and Cabrera, I was all for it. Now I’m not so sure.

A few things today from Buster Olney of ESPN:

• Olney reports that the Yankees want to know relatively soon, possibly as late as Tuesday, whether or not the Twins are accepting their deal of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and another prospect for Johan Santana. Id they receive no answer, the Yankees are prepared to pull out of the deal.

• The Yankees are also refusing to give up another high-level prospect as the third part in the deal. That means pitchers Ian Kennedy or Alan Horne, or outfielder Austin Jackson, for example, are safe for now.

• The Red Sox have agreed to include center-fielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Santana, but are still refusing to include two of the three players the Twins want. The other two players are pitchers Jon Lester and/or Clay Buchholz

The winter meetings start tomorrow in Nashville. Expect these talks to reach a fever pitch in the next two days.

Jack Curry of the NY Times starts us off this morning:

The Yankees have offered pitcher Ian Kennedy, center fielder Melky Cabrera and at least one minor league prospect, perhaps outfielder José Tabata. In the trade discussions, the Yankees have told the Twins that pitcher Joba Chamberlain is untouchable and that they do not want to deal pitcher Phil Hughes.

Because the Twins are insisting that Hughes must be a part of the package, the Yankees are mulling whether to make that concession. If the Yankees insert Hughes for Kennedy in their offer, they think it could be enough to obtain Santana. Of course, the Yankees, or any team that reached an agreement with the Twins, would then have the challenging task of signing Santana to a huge six- or seven-year contract in a 72-hour window.

So the Yankees have let it be known that “they do not want to deal pitcher Phil Hughes”, but “are mulling whether to make that concession”. I guarantee the Yankees and Red Sox aren’t going to show there final hand in all of this until the Twins ask for their “final offers”. Minnesota will then agree to a package of players from one team and ask the other bidder to either step up with a better offer or pass.

Of course another team other than the Yankees or Red Sox may come into play, especially if this drags into the winter meetings, which I fully expect it will. The Mets have already said Jose Reyes will not included in any trade so that would seem to eliminate them. The Angels and Dodgers, however, have the prospects to make a serious run at Santana. The only problem is Santana must first wave his no-trade clause and then both sides need to agree on a contract extension. It is believed that Santana and his agents will ask for a 6 or 7 year deal for at least $150 million dollars. Whether or not the Angles or Dodgers would be willing, or even capable to offer him that much money remains to be see.

So that leads us back to where we began. Yankees versus the Red Sox for all the marbles, or, in this case, one of the top pitchers in the game. The Red Sox have already proposed a package of pitcher Jon Lester, center fielder Coco Crisp, minor league shortstop Jed Lowrie and another minor league pitcher. The Yankees have countered with a very similar package in pitcher Ian Kennedy, center fielder Melky Cabrera and at least one minor league prospect, perhaps outfielder José Tabata. The Bombers could easily sweeten the pot with minor league pitcher Alan Horne or outfielder Austin Jackson.

Which team will win the Santana sweepstakes? If the Red Sox offer pitcher Clay Buchholz or center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, they’ll win the prize. If the Yankees cave and give up Hughes, Santana will be in pinstripes come February.

Money shouldn’t hold up any negotiations once a package has been agreed to. The team that balks, however, will be left to wonder what might have been.

From Nick Cafardo of BG’s Extra Bases:

The Red Sox appear to be smack in the middle of the action, according to one major league source. There’s a lot of silence coming from Yawkey Way, always an indication there’s something big in the works. According to what we’ve been told by a couple of major league sources is that the Sox would be willing to part with Tony Conigliaro Award winner Jon Lester over Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden over Justin Masterson. The Twins would take Coco Crisp to be their new center-fielder instead of the untouchable Jacoby Ellsbury, but doing that means the Sox would have to kick in another significant prospect. While sources did not confirm who that prosoect was, ESPN reported that it might be shortstop Jed Lowrie.

At this stage the Twins are still trying to sort out who is willing to offer what. The Yankees are still very much in the hunt with their talks centering around Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano.

“Centering around Robinson Cano”? I’ve read a few reports that have thrown around his name, but not where he’s been at the center of negotiations. The Yankees are not making Cano available. I think Cafardo was just reporting out of his ass.

From the Pioneer Press:

A little birdie says the Boston Red Sox have become the favorite in the Johan Santana trade sweepstakes.

The Twins would receive four players for the Twins’ two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, 28.

Others would be shortstop prospect Jed Lowry, 23; left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, 23; and right-handed pitcher Justin Masterson, 22.

Before a deal could be made, the Red Sox would have to have time to negotiate a contract extension with Santana, 28, who can become a free agent after next season and could have a market value as high as $150 million over six years.

Not sure who the little birdie is, but it could be this guy.

The Boston Hearld is reporting today that the package Minnesota wants includes two of the following players, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury. Boston, however, is willing to deal only one of those three according to the Herald.

Who do you believe? Since I’ve never even heard of this Charley Walters guy and his source seems to be either a finch or a sparrow, I’ll stick with the reports from the HUB thank you.

This morning, most of the New York papers and Yankees blogs are musing about what type of package would be enough for Johan Santana and/or whether a deal should even be made.

There are also reports the the Yankees aren’t alone in the Santana sweepstakes. The Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers all will make a push for him.

Joel Sherman of the NY Post, who believes the Yankees should trade for the Cy Young lefty, writes today that the Yankees must be prepared to offer more than just Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera in any trade discussions. That’s not really news to anyone who has followed this story since the Twins let it be known that they would want a major league ready player and three “premium prospects” for Santana. Kat O’Brien of Newsday writes that the Yankees continue to work on a package that will get a deal done.

I wrote here at MBB as early as last Saturday that it would probably take a Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Alan Horne and possibly Jose Tabata to get a deal done. Some may say that is way too much to give up, but we’re not talking about a middle of the rotation starter here. Johan Santana is one of the top three pitchers in all of baseball and the Minnesota Twins hold all the cards. If you want something bad enough, you’re probably going to have to give up more than you want to.

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times wonders just how bad the Yankees want Johan. Peter Abraham of LoHud thinks the Yankees should stick to their plan of developing the kids. The guys over at River Ave. Blues are selling ‘Save the Big Three’ t-shirts for God’s sake (cool idea by the way!). Steve at Was Watching thinks a “Cano & Hughes” or “Melky & Joba” is just way too much to give up.

More to come…

Remember when Hank Steinbrenner said this:

“The objective of the Yankees since the Twenties has been to win the World Series every year, just as the objective of [Vince] Lombardi with the Packers was or [Bill] Belichick with the Patriots. None of us think we can win a World Series every year, but that’s the goal.”

Maybe he’ll consider hanging this picture in every Yankee player’s locker, or at least use it as bulletin bo