MY BASEBALL BIAS

Shocking revelation tonight from Ken Davidoff of Newsday. He confirms, through a unnamed source, that Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte were never as close as the public was led to believe:

“They were never as close as they were made out to be,” a friend of both said on the condition of anonymity. “They just sort of went along with it in the media, because it was a good story.”

Though Clemens and Pettitte enjoyed working out together, their relationship didn’t extend much beyond that. Clemens is an extrovert, Pettitte an introvert. Clemens enjoyed going out after games on road trips; Pettitte almost always stayed in. Their families aren’t particularly close, although both make the Houston area their full-time residences.

When Clemens sat out the start of the 2006 season, keeping the Astros waiting for months on yet another unretirement, Pettitte joined other veteran teammates in growing annoyed by The Rocket’s prima-donna vacillating.

As Davidoff later mentions, the real showdown will come before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Feb. 13th. Will they play nice, or will Clemens have less than flattering things to say about Pettitte because of the position he was put in?

Regardless, it’s a fascinating revelation.

From ESPN.com:

Jay Reisinger, the lawyer for New York pitcher Andy Pettitte, told 1050 ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand that it is “premature” to say if Pettitte will attend next Wednesday’s hearings on Capitol Hill.

Reisinger, who also represented Sammy Sosa at the 2005 steroid hearings before the same congressional committee, said he expects to soon hear what the committee’s plans are for Pettitte. When he gets those answers, he will discuss the options available to Pettitte.

I think Pettitte needs to show up. Answer the committee’s questions and get ready for the 2008 season. Don’t go into spring training having to answer questions about why you ducked the dopes Capitol Hill.

What’s in the papers this morning?

• Kevin Kernan of the NY Post has a great article today on Joba Chamberlian. Kernan followed Joba and is Dad Harlan around Lincoln, Nebraska and writes a nice profile of the young man. It’s a nice break from all the steroid stuff.

• Hank Steinbrenner is 100% percent behind his pitcher Andy Pettitte and his decision to apologize for using HGH in 2002. No regrets signing him back. Oh yeah, those championships aren’t tainted either.

• Remember that guy McNamee who gave up Clemens, Pettitte and a few others? Here’s a very critical report on the man from an acquaintance of his. I just don’t know who to believe anymore. Former pitcher C. J. Nowitski gave a glowing report of McNamee yesterday that was printed in all the major newspapers. No we have someone coming out to say that he’s a liar, an “alcoholic” and “a troubled soul. Makes you wonder who’s the credible one in all of this.

• Hank made it clear today when discussing any deal for Johan Santana: “I am not giving up two of the three,” Steinbrenner said of Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Hughes, the Holy Trio of the Yankees’ pitching-rich organization. “That’s not going to happen.” Very good to hear. And at this point, I don’t think he should part with any of them.

• Mike Lupica has no sympathy for Andy Pettitte. What’s new. John Harper believes that Roger Clemens‘ denial no longer holds up after Pettitte’s apology.

Don’t forget to tune in today at 3:00 PM ET to our radio show The Hits Keep Coming where Ian of Sox and Dawgs and Anthony of the Oriole Post join me in discussing the latest developments regarding the Mitchell Report.

Also, A-Rod will be interviewed on 60 minutes tonight. Check your local listings.

Here are a few “must-reads” to get your Sunday started:

• Check out Jason Stark’s article over at ESPN about the comparisons being made between Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens as it relates to steroids.  Stark believes we all need to back-off a little and not be so quick to judge in this era of “gotcha journalism”.

• Want to know how a former player feels about the trainer that outed Clemens and Pettitte?  C. J. Nowitski shares what he knows about Brian McNamee.  More on McNamee’s life can be found here.

• Bill Pennington of the NTY’s focuses on how the use of steroids and HGH tricked down from two players, Todd Hundley and David Segui, who were teammates with the Mets in the mid-90’s and who both had ties to Kurt Radomski.

• Peter Gammons writes that reliever Brendan Donnelly is sick over his inclusion in the Mitchell Report.  I’m sure there are a few other players included in the report out there who haven’t been sleeping well since Thursday.

• The Daily News has an interview with Senator George Mitchell that sheds some light on his thinking.

• Kevin Davidoff of Newsday breaks down the winners (Selig, Canseco, Bonds and the ones that didn’t get caught, duh) and losers (Clemens, MLBA, Mitchell, LaRussa) in the Mitchell Report.  Davidoff also thinks Andy Pettitte has put Roger Clemens in a very difficult position.

Davidoff reports that Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long has already visited A-Rod at his home for a work-out and plans to go back again soon.

Our buddy Steve Lombardi over at WasWatching.com was credited in Newsday this morning for helping Andy Pettitte make the decision to return to the Yankees next season:

Along with the teammates and Yankees officials, Hendricks said the barrage of fan pleas had an effect as well. One fan, Steve Lombardi, even came up with “P46″ or “Project 46″, representing Pettitte’s number, and urged fans to write letters and e-mails to Pettitte.

“The fans helped,” Hendricks wrote. “Some wrote very touching and eloquent letters.”

Nice work Steve and to all of you who wrote to Andy.  It sure did help.

From PeteAbe:

Just received an e-mail back from Randy Hendricks.

Andy Pettitte will play for his original $16 million next season. There are no options. He decided on Saturday, they talked it over on Sunday and now it’s done.

2008 will probably be Pettitte’s swan song. It is comforting to know that the Yankees now have at least two pitchers, Pettitte and Wang, who can give them 200+ innings and at least 15 wins. I’m not saying that one of the kids couldn’t accomplish that, but I expect the Yankees will limit their innings through the course of the year.

If the Santana deal ends up working out, that could give the Yankees three starting pitchers who can accomplish the 200+ IP and 15 wins model.

The last Yankees staff to accomplish that feat was in 2003 and playing in the World Series against the Florida Marlins:

• Roger Clemens - 211.7 IP | 17 wins
• Andy Pettitte - 208.3 IP | 21 wins
• Mike Mussina - 214.7 IP | 17 wins
• David Wells - 213.0 IP | 15 wins

More updates to come.

Great news from the Houston Chronicle today:

Andy Pettitte, who contemplated retirement this winter, has told his good friends, a few former Astros teammates and some current Yankees teammates that he will return to the Bronx for the 2008 season.

Last month Pettitte declined his $16 million player option for 2008 because he wasn’t ready to commit to another season. But Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner told Pettitte they would wait for him until February, if necessary, so he could take his time to make a decision.

That wait is over, and the Yankees have been informed of the decision by Pettitte’s agent, Randy Hendricks.

When reached by telephone this morning, Hendricks, who was in route to Nashville for the start of baseball’s winter meetings today, confirmed that he has advised the Yankees that Pettitte will play for them in 2008.

Having Pettitte back fills a huge void in the Yankees starting rotation. Plus, he really took on a mentoring role with the young guys last year. Expect that to carry over into ‘08.

Now we wait on Santana. Will the Twins accept the offer of Hughes, Cabrera and a mid-level prospect by the Monday night deadline the Yankees have set?
If not, look for the Bombers to press hard for either Dan Haren or Erik Bedard.

This just arrived over at Peter Abraham’s blog:

Jorge Posada did a conference call (audio coming shortly) and discussed his new contract. He said about what you would expect. He wanted to stay a Yankee, he could DH down the road, he likes Joe Girardi, he was sorry to see Joe Torre go.

Where it got interesting was when he said the Yankees should trade for Johan Santana because they need a No. 1. Posada also said he has been calling Andy Pettitte once a week.

He said Pettitte is leaning to retirement but he hopes that will change given the direction of the team.

I have one thing to say to Posada: Start calling Pettitte twice a week. And if Santana signs with Boston, make it everyday.

Pete is posting audio from the conference call and when it becomes available, I’ll post it here as well.

[Hat tip to Ian]

UPDATE: Below is the audio from Posada’s conference call

Audio courtesy of Peter Abraham.

Its simple folks: lack of a dominant, strikeout pitcher.

There’s a great article over at Baseball Analysts that compares K/100 pitches with K/9 IP. The argument is that a higher strikeout total in relation to a lower pitch count (K/100 pitches) is a better “recipe for success” than how many strikeouts a pitcher racks up over 9 innings, or K/9 IP.

Decide for yourself, based on the data provided, whether the argument holds up.

What I find extremely bothersome, as a Yankee fan, is that we don’t have a pitcher that ranks in the top 50 of either of those categories.

The only two players ranked in the Top 80, mind you, are Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang.

• Pettitte: 215.3 IP | 141 SO | 3395 Pitches | 4.15 K/100 | 5.89 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 53
• Wang: 199.3 IP | 104 SO | 2861 Pitches | 3.64 K/100 | 4.70 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 79

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have two guys ranked in the top 10, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett.

• Matsuzaka: 204.7 IP | 201 SO | 3480 Pitches | 5.78 K/100 | 8.84 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 8
• Beckett: 200.7 IP | 194 SO | 3100 Pitches | 6.26 K/100 | 8.70 K/9 | K/9 Rank - 9

Here are the top 5 pitchers of K/9 IP for 2007:

• Erik Bedard: 10.33 K/9 IP
• Scott Kazmir: 10.41 K/9 IP
• Jake Peavy: 9.67 K/9 IP
• Johan Santana: 9.66 K/9 IP
• A.J. Burnett: 9.56 K/9 IP

Athletics pitcher Dan Haren, whom the Yankees have had internal discussions about, ranks #20 with 5.28 K/9 IP.

What about Joba Chamberlain? As of now, he’s the only true power pitcher slated to begin the season in the starting rotation for the Yankees. In 24 innings of relief in ‘07, he struck out 34 batters. If he pitches, say 160 innings next year, can we expect 170 strikeouts? That would be 9.56 K/9 IP and place him in the top five.

Now imagine if the Yankees landed Santana. That would mean two, lights-out power pitchers with the ability to average just over a strikeout per inning.

In my opinion, this is what the Yankee pitching staff seriously lacks.

Imagine a Santana/Chamberlain 1-2 punch? It could be dominate.

Here’s a look at the Yankee pitchers have ranked in the top 20 of K/9 IP since 2000 with a minimum of 160 IP:

2000:

• 13. Roger Clemens - 204.3 IP | 188 SO | 8.82 K/9 IP
• Link to full list

2001:

• 5. Roger Clemens - 220.3 IP | 213 SO | 8.70 K/9 IP
• 8. Mike Mussina - 228.7 IP | 214 SO | 8.42 K/9 IP
• Link to full list

2002:

• 4. Roger Clemens - 180.0 IP | 192 SO | 9.60 K/9 IP
• 14. Mike Mussina - 215.7 IP | 182 SO | 7.60 K/9 IP
• Link to full list

2003:

• 9. Mike Mussina - 214.7 IP | 195 SO | 8.18 K/9 IP
• 10. Roger Clemens - 211.7 IP | 190 SO | 8.08 K/9 IP
• 15. Andy Pettitte - 208.3 IP | 180 SO | 7.78 K/9 IP
• Link to full list

2004:

• 15. Jose Contreras - 170.3 IP (95.7 w/ Yankees, 74.7 w/ White Sox) | 150 SO (82 w/ Yankees, 68 w/ White Sox) | 7.93 K/9 IP
• Note: Contreras was traded by the New York Yankees with cash to the Chicago White Sox for Esteban Loaiza. Ouch!
• Link to full list
  

2005:

• 11. Randy Johnson - 225.7 IP | 211 SO | 8.42 K/9 IP
• Link to full list

2006:

• 19. Mike Mussina - 197.3 IP | 172 SO | 7.84 K/9 IP
• Link to full list

2007:

• No player ranked in the top 50. Pettitte ranked 53rd and Wang ranked 79th.
• Link to full list

When you look at it from this perspective, and granted, it’s only one angle, the Yankees have lacked a one-two power punch since 2003 (Clemens and Mussina).

Does any of this matter? I would much rather go into the playoffs with power pitchers than finesse guys. What are your thoughts?

…by writing a letter to Andy Pettitte. Steve Lombardi of the great Yankee Blog, Was Watching, has launched a writing campaign in hopes of swaying Andy back to the Bronx for one more year.

Here is more about Project P46:

Project P46

Here’s an idea - where maybe Yankees fans can help the team’s chances in 2008. Some time over the next 5 days (meaning over the long weekend where you should be able to find 15 minutes to get this done), why not send a card or note to Andy Pettitte? You can send it to:

Andy Pettitte
c/o Hendricks Sports Management LP
400 Randal Way Ste 106
Spring, TX 77388

Tell Andy that you’re a Yankees fan. Offer best wishes for the holiday season and new year to him and his family. And, of course, tell him that you would be thrilled to see him be a big part of the Yankees season in 2008.

Maybe an outpouring of aff