Interesting article today from Tom Verducci over at SI.com about teams pushing young pitchers into higher workloads than there bodies are ready for.
TV explains the Yankees dilemma below:
You can bet right now that Nardi Contreras, the Yankees’ organizational pitching guru, has mapped out ideal workloads for Hughes, Chamblerlain and Kennedy — which is one reason why you’re hearing talk now about Chamberlain starting the year in the bullpen. The Yankees are risking his health and his future if they think Chamberlain is going to start 32 times and throw 210 innings. He needs to be carefully managed, whether it be bullpen duty, skipped turns in the rotation, extra days between starts, shutdown periods and, yes, all of the above.
Similar problems exist for Hughes and Kennedy. None of them should be allowed to throw 200 innings this year. And now you get New York’s dilemma: How do you get to the World Series, which is the organizational mandate, with three starters who shouldn’t throw 200 innings, including the postseason? You either build in all the safeguards above, which means holding an inventory of eight starters at all times and being confident enough not to pitch the kids at times even when they’re healthy, or you panic and push them and risk the future.
Here is why Verducci ranked Kennedy first on his list:
Kennedy sailed through three minor league levels and reached the big leagues last year, his first full season in professional baseball. The Yankees allowed him to ring up 165 1/3 innings at age 22, after he threw 101 2/3 innings at USC in 2006 and 2 2/3 innings at Staten Island after signing. Kennedy was shut down late in September and left off the postseason roster because of what was described as mild back soreness.
Kennedy’s path may recall how the Angels pushed Jared Weaver, another college stud, by 56 innings in 2006. Weaver started 2007 on the DL with shoulder soreness and saw his ERA rise by 1.45.
One caveat: Kennedy’s jump is not as alarming as first blush indicates. The Yankees did give him an extra 30 1/3 “unofficial” innings of winter ball in 2006 (see Carmona below); not your high-stress big league innings, but still good incremental training. If you count that work, his jump of 30 2/3 innings barely pushes him into the danger zone
I think they’ll all (Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy) be okay. I seriously doubt the organization will risk an injury to one of them, especially after not trading for Santana. Look for the Yankees to seek out other options, however, either by trade or from the farm, if things get dicey in the rotation.
Kennedy also pitched 30 innings in hawaii in 2006 so he only really increased his innings by ~30 innings. Verducci should have done his homework better. Oh, he updated his article.
Yeah Drew, there was an update. I think Kennedy will be just fine as well.
TV hit it on the head. One has to expect the Yanks know what they are doing, and will skip, pass over, or shut down each one as needed.
We have enough good arms to use 8 starters if need be. A lot depends on Moose, Andy, CMW, staying healthy all year, just pitching as we know they can.
We also need some pitchers to steep up in the bull pen…there are more then enough arms for it to happen. 27/08
Agreed Old Ranger. I still think they’ll need another arm via free agency or trade. It may not come until the trade deadline, which is a long way off, but a little veteran presence is never a bad thing in moderation.