MY BASEBALL BIAS

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2006

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2006 season was filled with much optimism, but was ultimately mired in a series of injuries that led them to a league worst 61-101 finish. Early in the season Rocco Baldelli, Jorge Cantu and former Ray’s Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo all suffered from various injuries. Starting pitchers Scott Kazmir and Casey Fossum also hit the DL later in the season. In all, the Devil Rays had 17 players on the DL in 2006.

Taking all of that into consideration though, they did manage to finish over .500 at home, but were an abysmal 20-61 on the road. Also, their divisional record was a less than stellar 26-48.

Let’s take a look at how they fared against their AL East competition in 2006 -

Tampa Bay Devil Rays vs. AL East - 2006

Clearly the Devil Rays need to improve their winning percentage within the division if they hope to climb out of the AL East basement.

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Breakdown of the Devil Ray’s 2007 25-Man Roster

POSITIONAL OUTLOOK - INFIELD

FIRST BASE – Ty Wigginton, Greg Norton (15-day DL)

Who will play first on opening day? As of now it looks like Ty Wigginton will get the majority of time there for the foreseeable future. Greg Norton, who will DH but can play first base as well, was put on the DL today and will miss the next four to six weeks with a bum knee. Carlos Pena, who was recently reassigned to minor league camp due to a poor spring showing, may get a call back up to majors sooner than later. Wigginton, however, is more than capable of manning the position until they find a more suitable replacement, probably through a trade. Wigginton is a valuable assest for the Rays with his ability to play multiple positions and hit for power.

SECOND BASE – B.J. Upton, Brendan Harris

This is a position in flux at the moment. With the recent demotion of Jorge Cantu to AAA, it looks like the Rays are ready to hand over the reigns to B.J. Upton. Just expect those reigns to be very short as Upton is prone to poor defense play and a boat load of errors. Having said that, he is one of the more exciting players to come up through the Devil Rays system. He has tremendous speed with the ability to hit for power (18 HR’s at AAA-Durham in 2005). Over time he’ll more than likely find his place in the outfield, but for now, the Devil Rays would be wise to plant him at a position and allow him to grow offensively.

Brendan Harris, who came over from the Cincinnati Reds, is nothing more than a utlility man with a bit of power. Expect him to fill in at second base and the rest of the infield in 2007.

SHORTSTOP – Ben Zobrist

Zobrist came over from the Astros in the Aubrey Huff trade and will begin the 2007 season as their starter. He doesn’t provide much power, but his ability to get on-base (over .400 in every level of the minors) and field his position well should keep him entrenched there for the year.

THIRD BASE – Akinori Iwamura

Iwamura was a five-time gold glove winner in Japan and displayed considerable power. Will that translate into big numbers for the Devil Rays? Well, he had a poor spring but I think the Rays can expect him to put up about 20 homers and knock in about 80 RBI’s. Don’t be surprised though if he goes through extended slumps in this his first season.

CATCHER – Dioner Navarro, Josh Paul

Navarro is only 23 but has yet to live up to expectations. He started off in the Yankees organization and came over to the Devil Rays from the Dodgers last year for Mark Hendrickson and Toby Hall. He’s a pretty good defensive catcher and handles the pitching staff fairly well, but has yet to show much pop in his bat. Still, given a full year, he could make considerable strides in ‘07.

Josh Paul starts off the year as their back-up catcher.

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2007 POSITIONAL OUTLOOK – OUTFIELD

LEFT FIELD – Carl Crawford

Crawford is one of the most dynamic players in all of baseball. He can hit for power (18 HR’s in ’06), can steal a ton of bases (58 in ’06) and hasn’t even reached his prime yet (he’s only 25). He also adds a veteran presence to an extremely young ball club, having played more than 150 games in each of the last four seasons. Imagine being a veteran at the age of 25! Crazy.

CENTERFIELD – Rocco Baldelli

Will this guy every stay healthy for a full season and show us his true potential? In 2005, he was plagued with elbow and knee injuries. Hamstring problems hampered Baldelli at the start of 2006 and this spring he came up lame with another bad hammy. He isn’t expected to start the season on the DL but will probably be the DH in the opening series against the Yankees. He has good power and speed, but has always been named in numerous trades. If uber-prospect Elijah Dukes shows his flare this year in the bigs, don’t be surprised if Baldelli is moved.

RIGHTFIELD – Delmon Young

Delmon Young rounds out what is possibly the leagues most talented outfield. He had his struggles in 2006 with the bat throwing incident in April and comments that were less than complimentary to the major league club, but one thing is absolutely true…the guy can hit. He sure doesn’t like to walk a whole lot, and until he learns to become a more disciplined hitter, he will continue to put up big strikeout numbers. Still, he’ll hit for power and average and provide the Rays with more speed on the base-paths. At only 21, expect him to be a fixture in the D-Rays line-up for years to come.

UTILITY OUTFIELDER – Elijah Dukes

Despite Dukes problems that are to numerous to mention in this short summary, he earned a spot on the major league club in 2007 with a strong spring. He will probably get the opening day start in centerfield as well due to Baldelli’s injury. He can also hit for power and run. Whether or not he can keep his emotions and attitude in check remains to be see.

DESIGNATED HITTER – Jonny Gomes, Greg Norton

Gomes is such an erratic hitter that unless he comes out of the gates hitting bombs and lowering his strikeouts, he’s likely to platoon at the position with Norton or whomever may have a nagging injury (like Baldelli at the moment). If Gomes could only improve his plate discipline and knack for swinging through loads of pitches, (22 SO in 59 at-bats this spring) he could help the Rays tremendously in the power department. He had a monster first month in 2006 (.305/.453/.732 with 11 home runs) but a shoulder injury derailed his hot start and he ended up the year at .216/.325/.478. If he can stay healthy, he could be the Rays 2007 wild card.

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2007 POSITIONAL OUTLOOK – STARTING ROTATION

1. Scott Kazmir
2. Jae Seo
3. James Sheilds
4. Casey Fossum
5. Edwin Jackson

Scott Kazmir – Kazmir is undoubtedly the Ray’s go-to guy, their number one stud. He’s one of the leagues best pitchers and he’s only 23! He lowered his WHIP last year to 1.27, down from 1.46 in 2005. He also posted an 3.23 ERA in the 24 games he started. He experienced some shoulder discomfort after the All-Star break in 2006 and made a brief appearance in September and the was rightly shut-down by the Rays. Expect a big year from Kazmir.

Jae Seo – I think Seo will struggle tremendously this year because of his inability to strike batters out. He only struck out 39 batters in 90 innings last year and although he’s pitched admirably this spring, he once again is having trouble getting strikeouts. Eventually that will catch up to him.

James Shields – There is a lot to like about about James Shields who slots in as the Rays number two pitcher. He’s a ground ball pitcher with a good sinker. He doesn’t dazzle but then again he doesn’t walk anyone. He made 21 starts last year and struck out 104 batters in 124 innings pitched. He’s only 24 and should continue to improve.

Casey Fossum – Fossum moves into the fourth spot of the Ray’s rotation, but don’t expect him to stay there too long. He’s injury prone and will probably get nudged out at some point by one of the Ray’s young pitching prospects.

Edwin Jackson – Jackson has looked very good this spring but hasn’t pitched very well in any level above double-A when it’s counted. Many thought that J.P. Howell was going to win the last rotation spot but it ultimately went to Jackson. Expect the back end of the rotation to be a revolving door all season long.

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POSITIONAL OUTLOOK – BULLPEN

• Al Reyes
• Ruddy Lugo
• Gary Glover
• Shawn Camp
• Juan Salas
• Brian Stokes
• Jae-Kuk Ryu

Al Reyes – In 2005, before Tommy John surgery, Reyes struck out a batter per inning and had an anemic .926 WHIP in 62 innings. If healthy, he could be key to the Ray’s bullpen and maybe the guy they turn to in the ninth inning.

Ruddy Lugo - Looked good last year in a relief role for the Rays, holding down a 3.81 ERA in 85 innings. Doesn’t strike anyone out though.

Gary Glover – Looks like Glover is slated to be the Ray’s long man this year.

Shawn Camp – Camp has good command and is a veteran arm for the bullpen. He may see some save chances but don’t expect anything spectacular.

Juan Salas – With Dan Miceli and Scott Dohmann getting cut recently, a spot in the pen opened up for Salas. He might see a few save chances as well and work his way into the set-up role for the Rays.

Brian Stokes - Will more than likely work primarily in middle-relief.

Jae-Kuk Ryu - Another middle relief option for the Rays. Still young at 24 and could move into the back end of the rotation if Jackson or Fossum struggle.

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WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN 2007

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays organization has never had a winning season in their brief nine-year history. And to add more salt to that wound, they have never even come close. Only one time have they won 70 games, going 70-91 in 2004 under then manager Lou Pinella. Yet, the club is confident that it has made significant strides in recent years, especially in the player development department.

The Rays are confident and ready to win. Even though 2006 was a trying year for the ball club , home attendance increased and a number of their veterans were traded for promising prospects and players that contributed to the major league club right away.

In addition to their young talent, they now have a manger in Joe Maddon who exudes confidence coupled with an air of optimism. He wants a team that is sound in the fundamentals of the game, both offensively and defensively.

Will any of this translate into wins on the field? Maybe. If they can avoid injuries, get consistent performances night in and night out and avoid long stretches of losing, they will greatly improve.

Will it be enough to vault them out of the AL East basement? Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

CANTU ASKS FOR A TRADE; PROBABLY WON’T REPORT TO AAA

Jorge Cantu, 2B

The Devil Rays 2005 MVP and now former second baseman has been sent down to AAA. Although he hasn’t ruled out reporting to Durham, judging from his initial reaction, it seems as though his days as a Devil Ray are over -

“What can I say, I’m not a Minor League player,” Cantu said. “I think a change of scenery would be best.”

“And it’s just for the best,” Cantu said. “I don’t have anything to prove down there. I guess I have to go.”

Manager Joe Maddon simply said there was not a spot for Cantu other than DH and they decided to go with Jonny Gomes in that role due to his ability to play the outfield as well -

“We just chose Jon’s bat right now,” Maddon said. “Jorge, we just felt like there was a lack of a position. Jon, we feel we can put him in the outfield now because he is functional. Jorge, we weren’t going to play him at second base. We didn’t see first base as a viable option right now. And we had other things we wanted to do with the DH role. On all three counts, it kind of knocked him out of there.”

Cantu’s ego definitely took a hit today and he certainly voiced his frustration -

“It was like I didn’t do anything — like I just sat on my butt and waited for spring to begin,” Cantu said. “But it’s OK, it’s a business. … They just decided it was best. And I guess they decided I didn’t fit into their plans for this season. That’s pretty much what it’s all about. Whatever, I don’t even have any words any more.”

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GOMES HAPPY TO SAY THE LEAST

Jonny Gomes, DH/OF

Jonny Gomes, on the other hand, is staying. Did it matter that he struck out 22 times in 59 spring at-bats?

Obviously not -

Maddon said he saw Gomes “really fight for a position.”

“Before the camp began, I told Jon he was not on the team necessarily and he had to fight for a position, and he did,” Maddon said. “I liked what he did at the plate and I liked what he did on the bases. And I liked what he did in the outfield. I saw him as really fighting for that job, and I thought he really earned that right.”

Jonny Gomes was elated when he heard the news -

“I’m just ecstatic I made the ballclub.”

I just really didn’t want to go down to Triple-A,” Gomes said. “If that was the move they were going to make, of course I was going to go down there and play some ball. But I really wanted to be up here, and I’m glad it worked out that way. I guess you have to tip your hat to [Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew] Friedman and the boys in the office, because they weren’t kidding when they said it was a tryout.”

Maddon discreetly told Gomes on Friday he had made the team.

“He just said congratulations, and he goes, ‘You handled it well,’” Gomes said. “I could have been on the fence. When Andrew Friedman said this is a tryout, I could have been like, ‘I’m an established big leaguer. Why should I be trying out for the club?’ I took the other side of it and busted my butt — first one here and the last one to leave. [I] proved that I wanted to be here.”

So, it looks like the Devil Rays opening day roster is set. B.J. Upton is primed to make the majority of the starts at second base and Jonny Gomes will primarily see time in the DH position.

Moves made by the Devil Rays today -

The Devil Rays reduced their spring roster to 30 on Friday by sending RHP Seth McClung and RHP Chad Orvella to Triple- A Durham. That would seem to indicate RHPs Gary Glover, Jae Kuk Ryu and Juan Salas have made the team.

Also, first baseman Carlos Pena was reassigned to minor league camp.

We are still waiting for the Devil Ray’s final roster moves and their decisions on Jorge Cantu and Johnny Gomes.

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If you use David Pinto’s Day by Day Database, his Defense Charts and Probabilistic Model Of Range, or just enjoy his daily posts and updates on baseball, why not get yourself over to his website and make a donation.

I’m adding a little more to his tip jar because he’s helped me out and I think he’s one of the best baseball bloggers in the business.

Congratulations Dave and keep on keeping on!

PAVANO NAMED OPENING DAY STARTER

Carl Pavano, RHP

Well, this isn’t exactly the way the Yankees drew it up when they started spring training, but Carl Pavano will be your New York Yankees opening day starter -

Carl Pavano will be the New York Yankees’ opening-day starter.

Pavano hasn’t pitched in the majors since June 2005 due to a variety of injuries. He will be followed in the rotation by Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Kei Igawa. The fifth starter spot has not been filled.

New York manager Joe Torre made the announcement Friday.

Pavano got the assignment after injuries to Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang. Pettitte was scheduled to pitch for the first time since experiencing back spasms March 19 in a minor league game Friday. Wang is expected to be out until at least late April with a pulled right hamstring.

The stadium will be electric come Monday at 1:05 P.M. EST, I can guarantee you that. I love the move and I know 99.9% of Yankee fans out there will disagree with me. I’m well aware of that. But like I said before, what does he have to lose? He can’t go down from here because in the fans eyes he’s already hit rock bottom. All he has to do is go out with a plan and pitch his game.

The way I see it, Pavano has a few things going for him…adrenaline and the Devil Rays. The D-Rays are a very impatient hitting ball club. When you combine that with Pavano’s fastball, which will no doubt have a little extra zip on it because he’s starting at Yankee Stadium on opening day, I think this start sets-up very favorably for him.

We shall see.

UPDATE (12:48 P.M. EST) - EXTRA MOTIVATION?

Steve Lombardi of the great Yankee blog WasWatching.com links to a story from the New York Post about how Pavano and his girlfriend Gia Allemand are calling it quits on their relationship.  It seems as though Carl liked to “keep all his options open” if you know what I mean.

I don’t think this will have any affect on how he pitches Monday, but it’s a juicy side story.

There was an interesting blog post today from Marc Lancaster about who may start at second base for the Devil Rays -

The big question is Jorge Cantu’s status. He’s starting at DH today, and if he does manage to make the team that probably will be his role. That’s another reason he’s been limited to pinch-hitting duties in many recent games.

And here is R.J. Anderson’s take on it from D-Rays Bay -

…unless I have lost it that basically is signaling that B.J. Upton will be the Rays starting second baseman this season, splitting time with Ty Wigginton and Brendan Harris, but basically Cantu will no longer be playing at ‘4′.

Upton’s defense is the part of his game that has given him the most problems, especially at third and short-stop. But, he’s actually looked pretty solid in the field this spring.

Here is how he has fared defensively according to Rays Index -

He has played 62.2 innings in the OF, 8 innings at short stop, 4 innings at third and 58 innings at 2B. He has 3 errors (2 at third, 1 at second).

It also looks like he played nine more innings today at second without an error. Final rosters cuts will come in the next few days so this will be something to keep an eye on.

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In other Devil Rays news…36 year-old reliever Dan Miceli was released today.

Tomo Ohka, RHP

From CBC Sports -

The Toronto Blue Jays took another step towards finalizing their pitching rotation Thursday by naming Tomo Ohka the club’s fourth starter for the upcoming season.

“I think that Ohka has earned the spot in the rotation and I’m not worried about that at this point,” said Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi. “Just keep him healthy now.”

All that needs to be decided now is who is gets to be the Blue Jays fifth starter. That battle is coming down to a choice between Victor Zambrano and Josh Towers.

Here are GM J.P. Ricciardi’s thoughts -

“We don’t know what we’re going to get out of Tomo Ohka, Victor Zambrano or Josh Towers,” Ricciardi said matter of factly. “Can they give us six innings? We just don’t know. We can’t afford to tax our bullpen, especially since it’s going to be a young bullpen.”

Ricciardi said that both Victor Zambrano and Josh Towers will head north with the team. But the Blue Jays would like to see Zambrano give them five innings Friday in Winter Haven against the Cleveland Indians before handing him the fifth starter’s job.

“It’s almost like you’re waiting for the other shoe to drop with him,” Ricciardi said of Zambrano, who is 10 months removed from Tommy John tendon transplant surgery. “He’s defied the odds so far. We just need to keep riding him.”